According to the Chinese, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not tell Xi Jinping that he was going to invade Ukraine—presumably during Putin’s Beijing visit for the Winter Olympics—and that the Chinese were in a state of shock when it happened on 24 February 2022. To add some credibility to the claim, the Chinese official, while speaking to a British newspaper, asked, if they had known would they have allowed the killing of a few Chinese students in Ukraine. It’s a different matter that a claim of such deaths in March 2022 was emphatically denied by the Chinese state-run media. This is telling, firstly because it tells of the credulity of the western media, for it believes anything that comes out of the mouth of the Chinese; and secondly, it shows the “eagerness” of the Chinese to distance themselves from the Russian invasion, at least when western journalists are around, possibly to give Joe Biden enough room to manoeuvre ahead of Monday’s meeting between the US President and Xi Jinping in Bali on the sidelines of the G20 summit. This becomes obvious from another media report, where a US official was quoted as saying that at Sunday’s East Asia Summit held in Cambodia, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang spoke extensively on China’s “discomfort” with the “reckless rhetoric and activity on the part of Russia”. Li also apparently “put clear emphasis on sovereignty, on the irresponsibility of nuclear threats, the need to ensure that nuclear weapons are not used in the way that some (obviously, Putin) have suggested”.
This is amazing, given that just two weeks ago, China issued a statement on Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s telephonic conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, saying, “China will…firmly support Russia in rallying and leading the Russian people under the leadership of President Putin to achieve strategic development goals against all the odds and disturbance, and to further establish Russia’s status as a major country on the international stage. Wang noted that both China and Russia are fully entitled to seeking its own development and revitalization, and this is fully consistent with the trend of the times.” This seems like a classic case of China perfecting the art of speaking with different voices to suit the audience.
This being the context, it was small mercy that the White House readout of Monday’s meeting between Biden and Xi made all the right noises about the United States continuing “to compete vigorously with the PRC” by “aligning efforts with allies and partners”, while keeping lines of communication open so that the “competition” does not “veer into conflict”. The meeting also discussed addressing “transnational challenges” such as “climate change, global macroeconomic stability including debt relief, health security, and global food security”. Among other things, President Biden raised issues of China’s human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, apart from objecting to “the PRC’s coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan”. The topic of Ukraine was also raised, with both underscoring “their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine”. The readout ended by saying Secretary of State Antony Blinken would travel to China “to follow up on their discussions”.
The Chinese side, on its part, talked of managing differences, advancing cooperation, avoiding misunderstanding and miscalculation to bring China-US relations back on the right track. As Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a press briefing on Monday, “We hope that the US will work with China in the spirit of mutual respect, and play a responsible role in safeguarding world stability and development.” This is quite a contrast to Xi’s warning to Biden during a virtual meet in July 2022 that “those who play with fire will eventually get burned”, with reference to Taiwan, even though the US had not strayed from adhering to Beijing’s One China policy.
So what has changed in these three-four months for Xi to temper his tone? Is it because of the severe economic trouble that China is increasingly sinking in under Xi? Is Xi’s “outreach” to Biden actually a ploy of buying time that allows him to recuperate and gather strength, before he goes back to being all fire and brimstone? Is China seeking some concessions from the US, including perhaps in the domain of semiconductors? The ban imposed by the Biden government on the export of semiconductor chips and high-tech equipment has the potential to kill China’s semiconductor industry. Is China seeking the immediate lifting of tariffs that were imposed by Donald Trump on products worth more than $360 billion, tariffs that are hurting China? There is another school of thought that says Xi is using Monday’s meeting to size up Biden and see how serious he is about defending Taiwan, in case of an invasion of that island nation by China.
Also, what does bringing US-China relations back on track signify? That the US will continue with its decades-old soft-on-China policy, with the recent “tough” actions being mere blips? That Biden’s tough words are meant for the gallery and not for action? President Biden should not forget that China is like the leopard that does not change its spots. A mellower Xi does not mean that he is not seeking to be Emperor Xi of a future “Middle Kingdom”, trying to rewrite the world with Chinese Communist characteristics; or that he is not trying to dislodge the US to become the world’s sole superpower; or that the history of last few years’ disruption can be forgotten. That nothing has changed is obvious from the way Xi is propping up Putin and helping his war efforts in Ukraine, or the way he is continuing with his aggression and his political warfare against the whole world. Biden will trust Xi at his own peril.
Joyeeta Basu