Concerns are growing that Russia will not extend a United Nations-brokered deal that allows grain to flow from Ukraine to parts of the world struggling with hunger, with ships no longer heading to the war-torn country’s Black Sea ports and food exports dwindling.
Turkey and the UN negotiated the breakthrough accord last summer to ease a global food crisis, along with a separate agreement with Russia to facilitate shipments of its food and fertiliser. Moscow insists it’s still facing hurdles, though data shows it has been exporting record amounts of wheat.
Russian officials repeatedly say there are no grounds for extending the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which is up for its fourth renewal Monday. It’s something they have threatened before — then have twice gone on to extend the deal for two months instead of the four months outlined in the agreement.
The UN and others are striving to keep the fragile deal intact, with Ukraine and Russia both major suppliers of wheat, barley, vegetable oil and other food products that countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia rely on. It has allowed Ukraine to ship 32.8 million metric tons (36.2 million tons) of grain, more than half of it to developing nations. The deal has helped lower global prices of food commodities like wheat after they surged to record highs following the invasion last year, but that relief has not reached kitchen tables.
Russia’s exit would cut off a source for World Food Programme aid for countries at risk of famine, including Somalia, Ethiopia and Afghanistan, and compound food security problems in vulnerable places struggling with conflict, economic crisis and drought.
“Russia gets a lot of good public will for continuing this agreement,” said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute.
“There would be a cost to pay in terms of public perception and global goodwill, I think, as far as Russia is concerned” if the deal isn’t extended. The amount of grain leaving Ukraine already has dropped, with Russia accused of slowing joint inspections of ships by Russian, Ukrainian, UN and Turkish officials and refusing to allow more vessels to join the initiative. Average daily inspections meant to ensure vessels carry only food and not weapons that could aid either side have fallen from a peak of 11 in October to just over two in June.