By arresting Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party Supremo Arvind Kejriwal, the Enforcement Directorate has perhaps inadvertently created a situation where he could emerge as the rallying point of the collective Opposition against the BJP. Kejriwal’s arrest in the Excise case was imminent, particularly after his deputy Manish Sisodia and close aide Sanjay Singh were taken into custody, and because of the recent disclosures by K.Kavitha, daughter of former Telangana CM, Chandrasekhar Rao.
However, the timing of the action by the ED, particularly after the declaration of the Elections, is probably going to contribute in changing the political narrative in the country. Had Kejriwal been arrested some months ago, things would have been different, but his being whisked away from his house when he was preparing for his campaigning, is likely to evoke the sympathy factor in his favour.
Many political analysts who had seen what transpired in 1977 after Indira Gandhi, announced the elections, have likened the development to the walking out of the Congress by senior leaders, Babu Jagjiwan Ram and Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna. It was the formation of the Congress for Democracy (CFD) by Babuji and Bahuguna, which turned the tables on Indira Gandhi, and though there are several people who give the credit for her defeat and that of her party to Jaya Prakash Narayan and other opposition stalwarts, the CFD, had become the crucial factor. Kejriwal has often been described as someone who is most undependable and words such as “slime ball’’ have been used against him in the past.
However. this time around, he is being viewed as a victim, at least by the anti-BJP forces. His arrest took place on the day when the Congress addressed a press conference claiming that its funds had been unfairly frozen by the authorities and on the day the State Bank of India came out with the Bond disclosure report. The Opposition, which was struggling to find a counter narrative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s aggressive campaigning, has suddenly been resuscitated. The AAP volunteers are going to hit the streets and top leaders, including staunch critics of the Delhi CM, have issued statements condemning his arrest, and accusing the ruling dispensation of adopting high-handed measures, to silence or contain its adversaries. While it is for the Supreme Court and the lower judiciary to take a call on this controversial matter, it is unlikely that he may get immediate relief.
Nevertheless, his remaining in jail would suit the anti-BJP forces as the agenda would now perhaps be on stifling of democracy, and other matters may take the back seat. Kejriwal is the leader of a national party, and whether one agrees or disagrees with his policies or methods, there is every probability that people may start rethinking on how political activity has to move forward. It is obvious that Modi Bhatks would be unmoved, and would dismiss the development lightly, but the question that would remain is that has the ED, scored a goal against the BJP. In the past the ED has been accused of acting at the behest of the ruling dispensation to silence its critics, but Kejriwal’s arrest, could have changed the mood. This of course only time can tell, but AAP volunteers would ensure that the echo of this action by the enforcement agency is heard throughout the country. Delhi is where the AAP has been in power following the rout of the Congress in 2013. And obviously, the maximum impact of his arrest would be felt in the national capital as also where it is in power. Many analysts hold the view that the performance of the ruling party in Delhi also determines how it performs elsewhere.
Therefore, if this premise is accurate, the BJP could be in deep trouble. Most of its candidates in the city like elsewhere are completely dependent on a national wave to get elected, and if for some reason, the mood changes, then the AAP and Congress combine could snatch some seats, a result that could get reflected elsewhere. The arrest has also ensured that the focus would now shift on the consequences of Kejriwal’s arrest, and would no longer be on the achievements of the ruling party. This would pose a big challenge to the top BJP leadership, which would have to now think on its feet on how to deal with the unexpected response to this emerging situation. At another level, if the accusation against Kejriwal and AAP that they were part of the `B’ team of the RSS, is accurate, then there could be repercussions involving those who supported him, or had planned the India Against Corruption movement led by Anna Hazare, during the UPI rule. The BJP’s case is going to be that the CM who came to power riding on an anti-corruption narrative, is now himself involved in something he stood for. In their eyes is an Honest dishonest man ((Imandar Beiman). An immediate fallout of this action could also be that the Akali-BJP alliance which was almost finalized may suffer a setback.
The supreme irony is that even the Congress which was sought to politically eliminated by the AAP leader, may now rally around him. The arrest has made Kejriwal as the principal challenger to Modi, much to the discomfort of the BJP, which would have wanted the narrative to be Modi versus Rahul. It is too early to make any concrete inferences but Kejriwal’s arrest could be the changing moment of these elections.