The major repercussions of a failed farsightedness have caused a great deal of anarchy in the neighboring state of Myanmar in the recent times. Deterrence theorists can as well use the example of a military coup suitably to substantiate on what happens as the protection machinery becomes the controlling authority, overpowering a government that they did not see coming to power again. The loss in trust on the government by the military forces has been a recurring problem in Myanmar since the 1990s.
The muscle flexing by the military junta in Myanmar speaks of an innate failure of the democratic institutions that have tried to get a foothold in Myanmar since its independence in 1948 from the British Crown. There are two things that need to be taken cognizance of –
i) The Concept of the veto power by which the military appointees already hold a portion of the parliamentary seats
ii) The idea of the pluralist democracy that exists within the boundary of the country which could have made the military forces a guiding power to keep the democracy in check.
However, the discrepancies are more as the boots on the ground marched towards a usurpation that resonated violence of the highest order. Any democratic government for that matter needs to understand that the support of the military is essential in guiding a country with varying opinions and strong oppositions. But in the case of Myanmar, since the 1990s, the popular party of Aung Sang Suu Kyi has faced a crisis in getting the military forces in their absolute control and good faith. The military coup thus has strongly backed the oppositional Union Solidarity and Development Party that is backed by the military. But the conditions that have resulted into this wide spread chaos is a humming debate and accusation encircling widespread fraudulent activities by the NLD during the 2021 elections, where even illegal walkie-talkies were said to have been possessed by Aung Sang Suu Kyi. The centrism and the poor separation of the power definitely corroborates to the established notion of an institutional weakness that is existing in Myanmar. The crack downs have been massive in 1988, 2010 and now even greater with changing political cultures in Myanmar.
The change of the baton to Major Min Aung Hlaing, the leader of the military coup who has promised a true and disciplined democracy with this coup along with the functioning of the State Administrative Council has caused a great deal of uneasiness thus, and the student community has even jumped in support of the NLD that has been deprived of its constitutional office by force.
There are a multitude of problems that are anticipated in the post-coup Myanmar. What shall be befitting in such a grim situation is a meditated intervention of the ASEAN. The problem however is that the ASEAN follows a strict principle of not intruding in the domestic affairs of the member countries and the divided opinions and reactions of the ASEAN members could be seen as yet another thorn in the way of a resolution in Myanmar. Indonesia stands as the only member state that has been actively standing against such atrocities in the recent times, even if they can be deemed as internal fiasco. Other weaker countries like the Vietnam, Thailand would not interfere in the process of harmonizing the state of Myanmar with its military and the role of Indonesia stand important in asphyxiating the motion of the coup as they had tried to do in friendly terms back in the times of the Rohingya Crisis as well. Others like Vietnam and Cambodia have been silent only because of their profitable business transactions, but Thailand even while being one of the largest beneficiaries (importers) of the Burmese Natural Gas have spoken against such atrocities.
Thus there have been several setbacks for the ASEAN in the recent times with divided beneficiaries acting according to their own vested interests. The present coup also enhances and aggravates the political influence of China, overpowering the Quad in the transnational scenario of the South Asian democracy. The aim to bring down the heat of the disaster, while previously aiming at internal debates and discussions over the Human rights violations in the ethnic cleansing in Myanmar, all tentatively pull down the dynamic index of the ASEAN as a stable initiator and agency of peace. There must be a scope for a strategic support that must be belted out to India to be a more responsible entity that can address greater Human Rights violations in its neighbourhood. Widodo, the Indonesian President said, “Dialogue and reconciliation must be carried out immediately to restore democracy, to restore peace and to restore stability in Myanmar”. The increase in crime with the epicentre in China has already resulted in increase in trans-border smuggling of guns, narcotics and online casinos. The problem of the Chinese influence in the region correlates to a better revenue generation policy with illicit activities that is easier in a state whose democratic machineries have been languishing in the dust. We must remember about the Mekong River Massacre in the Golden Triangle Region in 2011and the very recent border espionage activity of a Chinese man, Han Junwe who was caught with 1300 SIM Cards by the BSF of India in the Indo-Bangladesh border. The security threat has thus become tremendous in the coming times and in the absence of an organized will to mitigate crisis, the problem can hit the roof, especially when the promises of Good Governance and Security Enhancement has been a top priority in the charters of the ASEAN more than a decade back.
The major refugee crisis could again return to torment the security issues in India, given the Indian Government has been silent on issues pertaining to the coup. Recent developments however stray away from the earlier support of India for the formation of a democratically stable government in Myanmar in 2020. The silent support of the Indian Government towards the newly organized military regime could lead to serious problems. India has sold remote controlled air defense stations to Myanmar through the Bharat Electronics Ltd. which is a government owned enterprise. Besides this, India also opted out of the non-binding resolution in the United Nations pertaining to not selling of arms and ammunitions to Myanmar and aggravates the turmoil situation existing due to the coup.
Currently the array of economic interests could range from the joint understanding in certain developmental projects like the Trilateral Highway Project, the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project among others. The extended border sharing can be also one of the reasons that the present Indian Government is willingly trying to maintain cordial terms with the military junta as a means of shield against the several militant uprisings on the border by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland and Chin National Defense Force in Myanmar who might share a common root and join hands in their struggle towards formation of a separate state of consolidated power, rendering high security threat in the North Eastern region of India. Since independence the Naga insurgencies have caused a huge deal of security issues and with the current situation in the neighbouring country, there can be only a greater trans-border crisis that is far from being possible to be mediated or mitigated. The Ethnic Armed Organizations have for long prevented occupation of their indigenous regions where there is huge reserve of natural resources. They are one of the prime players in the counter- uprising against the military regime. The local militias have also joined in as a collective voice with the overbearing response from the National Unity Government and the People’s Democratic Forces that have not only killed thousands of forces from the regime, throw grenades at military convoys in Yangon, but have been able to draw in people from the same Tatmadew. Places like Yay Shin and Kalay have large stretches of forests where the members of the People’s Democratic Forces are in hiding after their houses were burned down by the military forces and they are now battling the COVID-19, the low oxygen levels, the lack of food resources while waiting for bureaucratic paralysis to break down the force of the Junta even if it is through a sustained civil disobedience movement, because usurpation of rights is anything but democratic.
The other implications can step from the certain immediate measures taken by the Indian government in holding the bridle reins tight upon the Chin refugees from Myanmar through the Arunachal, Manipur route and the internally displaced people who have been trapped in India, without proper medical aid, COVID- 19 vaccines and other rehabilitation facilities and have been denied exit visas to move to other countries. The role of the Humanitarian groups in aiding these refugees have also been kept in check and in this situation the rising distrust of these refugees on the Indian Government and the military autocracy in their own country could shoot up possible fronts from another civil war in Myanmar with blazing repercussions in India as well because of their sustained support of the military regime for their own safeguarding. It is only the predictions of a mass exodus like the Rohingya crisis of 2017 in India with the current situation. Nothing, but a mediation by any of the cooperation groups in Asia or by the United Nations can solve this situation only if the key players act strategically to avoid further escalations of the situation in Myanmar, with irretrievable damages.