Joe Biden’s presidential election victory will usher significant changes in the US’ approach towards West Asia. The incoming Biden administration will face new challenges in the region, amid the popular call within the US to “end endless wars”. Escalating regional rivalries, protracted political instabilities, and recurring protests against foreign involvement will be major concerns for the US to preserve its interests in the region.
The war in Syria and Yemen remains a pressing issue for Washington. Iran’s influence in both Syria and Yemen has grown in the past years, and the IRGC and Hezbollah trained militia groups have been able to control some of the strategic positions in Syria. Biden’s top advisors have mentioned that the President-elect considers sanctions as a necessary non-military foreign policy tool in Syria and sanctions like the Caesar Act should be a part of a comprehensive strategy driven by diplomacy. Biden had earlier criticised Trump’s policy in Syria endangering the Kurdish allies in the region. However, it is yet to be seen how Biden would ensure the security of Syrian Kurds amid tense US-Turkey relations, which is likely to continue in the coming years. Concerning Yemen, the incoming Biden administration will likely work towards blocking the weapons supply from Iran to the Houthis. Biden had called to reassess Washington’s ties with Riyadh at the backdrop of the war in Yemen. However, in the larger context, it is more likely that Saudi Arabia and the UAE will remain working closely with the US sharing converging strategic interests in the region. The new administration plausibly will work towards healing the rift within GCC as Qatar hosts some of the Pentagon’s most important military bases. Amid growing Iranian aggression, the US’ engagement with GCC remains essential and is likely to progress in the coming years.
Biden has engaged with prominent Iraqi leaders in the past and is aware of the intricacies of a political landscape embroiled in sectarianism. After the US withdrawal from Iraq, Tehran widened its inroads in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi understands the complexities of engaging with the US, especially regarding issues like the US-Iraq strategic dialogue that began earlier in June. Strong militia organisations like Iran-backed Hashd al-Sha’abi play a crucial role in shaping regional security in the current context. The clash between Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on political issues reflects the growing tension in Iraq’s political landscape and the long-standing ideological contentions between seminaries of Najaf and Qom. Such strains certainly make it more difficult to bring political stability to Baghdad. Washington’s negotiations with Tehran remain important for Iraq to make any progress as the country remains stuck between the US and Iran. Biden will be cautious on lifting sanctions on Iran, especially when Iran’s stacked election is expected to bring a hardline government to power next year.
Like Iraq, the situation in Lebanon also hinges on Biden’s approach towards Iran. Lebanon faces severe sanctions currently, and only if the Iranian regime responds promptly to any renegotiation process the US extends, there could be eventual relief on some of these sanctions. Prime Minister Saad Hariri offers little hope in any solution as Lebanese politicians have already lost the credibility and trust in the eyes of Lebanese people. Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, the single largest bloc in the Lebanese parliament, is at loggerheads with PM Hariri. Both have accused each other of obstructing political and economic reforms in the country. Bassil, a close ally of Hezbollah, now faces sanctions by the US over alleged corruption. However, the developments in Lebanon are not an immediate concern for the US. Biden has indicated that the US and its European allies like France could work closely to see positive developments in the region. So, the progress in France’s reform programme for Lebanon and Washington’s solidarity remain essential for political stability in Lebanon.
Biden has been a critic of illegal Israeli settlements inconsistent with international law as per several UNSC resolutions. Biden has also indicated his support for the Palestinian people, which could translate under his administration to reinstating humanitarian aid to people in the West Bank and Gaza. However, it is highly unlikely that Biden would undo the progress of the Abraham Accords and the peace/normalisation treaties between Arabs and Israelis. Biden had earlier remarked that “American military aid to Israel is the best investment”. Hence, despite some relief from Trump’s unprecedented decisions, the Palestinian Authorities will be pushed to a difficult situation during negotiations in the coming years.
America’s shale revolution has enabled the country in cutting down its dependency on oil-rich powers of West Asia. However, the US remains cautious about maintaining stability along the sea lines of communication. The threats to its strategic assets in the region and vulnerabilities of energy facilities of its allies in the Persian Gulf remain major challenges for the US.
The Arab opinion on the regional conflicts remains divided, and popular anti-government protests frequently erupt in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. Washington’s approach towards the region will largely continue depending on preserving the US’ strategic interests. Biden has emphasised on his counter-terrorism plus policy that could potentially help the US reduce military deployments in the region. Biden’s pick for US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, had earlier said that unlike Trump the incoming Biden administration would work towards “uniting with US partners in the region instead of isolation from them” and that perhaps would be one of the major changes in Biden’s approach towards West Asia.
Despite all the contradictions in West Asia, how the US will preserve its interests in the region remains a part of the larger debate.