Will the 2023 Karnataka Assembly polls be a battle of political survival for former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular) or will the regional party once again emerge as a ‘king’ or a ‘kingmaker’, like it did in 2018, in the event of a hung verdict? Political circles are abuzz with this debate before the past couple of elections, and this time is no different.
Plagued by desertions and internal rifts, and with the image of being a “family party”, Gowda’s son Kumaraswamy, has in a way single-handedly managed the JD(S) campaign across the state, with his aging father taking the backseat. Kumaraswamy has by-and-large focused his campaign on a five-fold programme called ‘Pancharatna’, quality education, healthcare, housing, farmer welfare and employment that the JD(S) plans to implement in the event of coming to power.
Though the 89-year old Deve Gowda initially stayed away from campaigning due to age-related ailments, he pitched in and travelled and campaigned for JD(S) candidates in the past couple of weeks, especially in the party bastion of Old Mysuru region, making an emotional pitch, and countering the Congress’ and BJP’s attacks against his party. Allegations by both national parties that the JD(S) was the ‘B team’ of the other, and that JD(S) was hoping to win just 35-40 seats at the most to play a crucial role in government formation in case of a hung verdict were among the criticisms faced by Kumaraswamy in this campaign. Since the time of its formation in 1999, JD(S) has never formed a government on its own, but had been in power twice in coalition with both national parties for 20 months with BJP from February 2006 and with Congress for 14 months after the May 2018 Assembly polls with Kumaraswamy as the Chief Minister.
This time, the party has set an ambitious target of “mission 123” to form a government on its own by winning at least 123 out of total 224 seats, and has been seeking votes invoking regional Kannadiga pride and fueling a narrative that national parties the BJP and Congress fall well short of serving interests of the state.
There are, however, doubts among some political observers and within a section of the party itself about JD(S) meeting this target; the party’s best ever performance so far has been in the 2004 Assembly elections, when it won 58 seats, and 40 seats in 2013 was its second best.
The party’s vote share is stagnant. It has been ranging between 18-20 percent, as the party has managed to continue its hold on to a sizeable number of constituencies, predominantly in the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru region (south Karnataka).