China’s Communist Party started its 20th National Congress in Beijing by showcasing Xi Jinping’s achievements in the last five years. A film screened at the inauguration showed the 2020 Galwan valley clash, which killed 20 Indian soldiers, as one of Xi’s achievements. The inauguration was also attended by Qi Fabao, a PLA officer who was injured in the clash and whose presence at the Winter Olympics torch rally resulted in India not participating in the Games held in Beijing earlier this year. Thus, a clear message was sent to India that China would continue to highlight the Galwan clash as an achievement against the enemy—India—to boost the morale of its soldiers. This is in keeping with Xi Jinping’s earlier speeches to the PLA, where he spoke of enemies at the border would be taught a lesson. Xi may not have spoken of India in his two-hour-long speech on Sunday, but the underlying message was there for all to comprehend, and should serve as a wake-up call for those in India who believe that it’s Taiwan that is at immediate risk of being invaded by its predatory neighbour, and not India. The fact is, the US is behind Taiwan, and China may not be looking forward to a clash with the American forces, apart from the fact that any action against Taiwan may invite US sanctions. In such a situation, India becomes the obvious target. The worry is that India may have to pay a high price for its so-called neutrality, which appears to be more Russia friendly than being actually neutral. India will not only have to fight its own war but also may not get any help from the US in terms of imposing sanctions on China when a conflict takes place. No wonder China wants to ensure that India-US relations do not achieve the great heights these can if they join hands as the world’s two most influential democracies. This should also explain the whole ecosystem that has grown in the West where the Chinese communists have joined hands with the Islamists in spinning a narrative of fascism in India, trying to paint this country as a rights violator, which is committing a genocide of its minority population. An aside: this attempt became blatantly obvious during Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s recent visit to the US, when a full-page advertisement was taken out by unknown organisations in the most prestigious business newspaper there, asking investors not to invest in India and urging the US government to put the Indian minister and 10 others under the Global Magnitsky Act, which sanctions foreign government officials for human rights abuse.
The fundamental problem of India-China relations is that the latter is convinced that the former will have to be shown its place, kept in turmoil to manage the neighbourhood and to establish its own hegemony in Asia. As experts say, the 1962 war was not so much about the border dispute between the two countries, but about showing India, rather, Jawaharlal Nehru, “a world figure”, his place. In the 21st century, China has a problem with India’s rise and the border dispute becomes an excuse to try and cut India down to size, one of the reasons it keeps the issue alive till date. But sooner or later there is bound to be conflict when China overreaches—and China will overreach, while crying victim. Ironically, just like the Chinese, the Indian foreign policy and security establishment too knows that a conflict is inevitable—it is a question of when and not if. Or at least many of them do. It is just that the Chinese want to lull them into complacency by saying that it is possible to normalize relations by keeping the border issue on the back burner. That is why India’s current stand that without the resolution of the border issue there cannot be any movement forward towards the normalization of relations is causing so much unhappiness in China. But how can there be normalization when China’s infrastructure building along the LAC picks up pace, proving that its intentions are wrong?
There is no doubt that India is doing a far better job than the West in standing up to China. Half the countries in the West are still struggling to get rid of TikTok and Huawei, or not even trying, as in the case of TikTok in the US. India has got rid of both and is trying to reduce its dependency on Chinese telecom products. But we still have a long way to go before we can decouple from China. Amid this it is important to call out China internationally for what it is—a totalitarian state and a genocidal power. Hence, India’s abstention from voting at the UN human rights council on China committing genocide of the Uyghurs was so disappointing. As the largest democracy of the world, India needs to make exception to its rule of not taking any stand against any country at the UN.
As for the party congress, it once again reminded us that India-China relations are anything but normal. India has to stay vigilant, for a lot will depend on how badly hamstrung Xi gets because of the economic turmoil in China. He just might feel the need to launch a military offensive in the hope of a quick victory to justify his continuance in power. China’s 20th party congress is a portent of dangerous times to come.
Joyeeta Basu
