India has crossed more than 95,000 cases in a single day which is a serious concern. However, the country’s recovery rate is higher than other countries. Dr Giridhar J. Gyani, director general, Association of Healthcare Providers (India), explains the latest survey done by AHPI which has shown that India will hit 80 percent recovery rate by September end.
Q: What has the latest report by AHPI revealed?
A: Based on the data presented in our report, we are in the middle of the first stage itself. India has so far conducted 5.18 crore Covid tests whereas Brazil has conducted only 1.44 crore tests out of which 41.23 lakh have been tested positive. Brazil’s positivity rate is 28 percent and India’s positivity rate is 7.75 percent. In India, the number of active cases has gone down to 20.71 percent and the recovery rate stands at 77.3 percent. The month of August has shown a downturn in the positivity rate from 9.4% to 7.8%. These figures, when put together, are a clear indication of the pandemic slowing down rather than a rumoured second wave. We should hit a recovery rate of 80% by September end or by October first week.
Q: Do you think we are in the second stage? Do you think the cases recorded can be ten times in numbers?
A: The percentage of positive cases every day has been holding steady since 15 August. It had peaked in July itself. The more we test, the more we will find. It will be worrisome when the percentage positively rises to a high number. Currently, India is holding steady at 8.01%; in Brazil, it’s 28%.
Q: When do you think the curve will flatten?
A: If you see the number of active cases per day, we’re beginning to flatten. However, it’s worrisome that our recovery rate has not risen the way it was supposed to but we should touch the 80% recovery rate by the end of September.
Q: What can be done to control rising numbers?
A: Rising numbers can be controlled only by imposing rules strictly. In a city with highly educated people like Pune, it’s a shame that rules are being flouted. Lockdowns are not the answer. Our lockdowns were not to stop the spread but to manage it, and we’ve done that.
