According to GDP figures from the International Monetary Fund, India leaped past the UK in the final three months of 2021 to become the fifth-biggest economy. The calculation is based in US dollars, and India extended its leads in the first quarter.
The Indian economy is forecast to grow more than 7% this year. A world-beating rebound in Indian stocks this quarter has just seen their weighting rise to the second spot in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trailing only China’s.
On an adjusted basis and using the dollar exchange rate on the last day of the relevant quarter, the size of the Indian economy in “nominal” cash terms in the quarter through March was $854.7 billion. On the same basis, UK was $816 billion.
The UK is likely to have fallen further since. UK GDP grew just 1% in cash terms in the second quarter and, after adjusting for inflation, shrank 0.1%. Sterling has also underperformed the dollar relative to the rupee, with the pound falling 8% against the Indian currency this year.
The IMF’s own forecasts show India overtaking the UK in dollar terms on an annual basis this year, putting the Asian powerhouse behind just the US, China, Japan and Germany. A decade ago, India ranked 11th among the largest economies, while the UK was 5th.
As per the latest official data, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth surged to 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year as compared to 4.1 per cent in the previous quarter.
India’s real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 2022-23 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 36.85 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.46 lakh crore in Q1 2021-22, showing a growth of 13.5 per cent as compared to 20.1 percent in Q1 2021-22, as par the data.