The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has approved the rollover of a $1.3 billion loan to Pakistan. This is in addition to the $700 million that the bank had previously lent to the cash-starved country. Significantly, Pakistan’s external foreign debt amounts to $126 billion, out of which $30 billion is held by China. This amount is three times larger than Pakistan’s IMF debt of $7.8 billion and exceeds its borrowings from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank altogether. This is according to the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). So, the development leading to China extending loan to Pakistan should be a matter of concern for India. Needless to say, the loans being given by Beijing to Islamabad may be used for coercive leverage. This has been a normal practice on the part of the Chinese government to fish in troubled waters. India is fully aware of how China has been trying to convert adversity of Sri Lanka into an opportunity for itself to grow influence in the island nation, obviously keeping in mind India’s strong presence there. Similarly, the Chinese government may have a detailed plan up its sleeves to use Pakistan’s crisis as an opportunity to counter India’s influence in the South Asian region. India must see Beijing’s decision to extend an extra amount of loan to Pakistan in this context as well. After this financial assistance by Beijing at the time of the crisis in Islamabad, the region will see much closer ties between China and Pakistan in days to come. What will also be seen will be China’s growing attempts to expand its foothold in India’s neighbourhood, which Pakistani rulers will gleefully allow to happen. There is no denying that Pakistan is completely in the debt-trap of China, as apart from present and past loans, Islamabad may be looking to Beijing for more financial assistance in future as well. And, China does not help any country like Pakistan and Sri Lanka without a quid pro quo. China will seek the cost of every single penny that it extends to Pakistan. Islamabad was making all possible efforts over the past few months to secure financial help from the international lending bodies including the IMF.
When none of them turned up, China, Pakistan’s all-weather friend, came to its rescue, but not without vested interests and costs for it. China did not take the decision to help Pakistan immediately after the crisis happened there. In fact, China wanted to give the message of being the only reliable partner of Pakistan so that the crisis-ridden nation keeps on doing what Beijing wants. There is no denying that China will be using its growing partnership with Pakistan to foment troubles for India from the soil in its immediate neighbourhood. China is already behind various anti-India activities being carried out from the soil of Pakistan. India is already annoyed with the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
At the same time, China is planning to extend its controversial CPEC project to regional countries, including Afghanistan. India has already registered protests on several occasions over this project saying it is in violation of its sovereignty as it passes through Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK)—Indian Territory illegally occupied by Pakistan. With Pakistan under more pressure due to fresh financial help from China, the Chinese government will be giving further push to such projects and agendas not only in Pakistan but also in adjoining regions with the help of Islamabad, with the sole motive of creating problems for India.
With Pakistan sliding into China’s clutches, the rulers in Beijing will find it easier to implement their anti-India agenda in connivance with Pakistan. It will instigate Pakistan to raise the Kashmir issue more aggressively and more frequently. There are all apprehensions that China might use its leverage to try to strengthen its strategic position in the PoK region. It will also be looking at the propaganda and tactics to gain a better geopolitical position, with the help of Pakistan in the region. China may also try to divert global focus from the problems along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). What irks China is that India has been able to garner global support against China vis-à-vis unresolved border rows between New Delhi and Beijing. It is in this background that India needs to be extra cautious and watchful against any Chinese conspiracy to foment problems for India.