All political parties are currently engaged in discussions to strategise for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In order to counter the BJP and NDA’s momentum, Opposition parties formed the I.N.D.I.A alliance bloc earlier this year. The component parties of the Opposition alliance have begun discussing seat-sharing in Uttar Pradesh.
Sources indicate that a strategy will be agreed upon soon. The Samajwadi Party (SP), Congress, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), and other constituent parties have initiated discussions regarding seat distribution. However, the seat-sharing arrangement is likely to be made public only after negotiations with the BJP. In terms of Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in the country. The BJP currently holds a majority of UP’s 80 seats, which is why the state is receiving special attention from the Opposition.
The current political scenario in the state is not favourable for I.N.D.I.A. The Congress only holds the Rae Barelli seat in the state. In the 2019 elections, the SP won 5 seats, but later lost two, Azamgarh and Rampur, in by-elections. It currently holds Mainpuri, Muradabad, and Sambhal. The RLD and other supporting parties have no representation here.
In terms of Assembly, the SP is the second-largest political force after the BJP. Sources say Congress is demanding 25-30 seats in Uttar Pradesh, but a consensus may be reached on about 15-20 seats. The RLD was given 33 seats in partnership with the SP in the Assembly elections, and based on this, they may be allocated 4-5 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. SP is expected to contest on around 50 seats and may leave 5-10 seats for other supporting parties. Under India’s special strategy, the Azad Samaj Party led by Chandrashekhar Azad may possibly be fielded from Bijnor to woo Kurmi voters. There have been rumblings that the Trinamool Congress may receive a seat and pave a path for the Samajwadi Party in West Bengal.
The BJP’s ticket distribution calculations will also be taken into account. Therefore, there will be no haste in announcing the faces for each seat. In 2019, despite the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of the SP and BSP, the BJP won 64 out of Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 15 seats. As per the political scenario, the nature of Assembly and Lok Sabha elections is different. In 2014, when the SP was in power in Uttar Pradesh, it won only five seats in the Lok Sabha. Therefore, it might not be appropriate to determine the formula for Lok Sabha elections based on Assembly seats.