Indian economy rides on growth momentum in Q2 2024 unrelenting from previous quarters

Indian economy rides on growth momentum in Q2 2024 unrelenting from previous quarters

The Dun & Bradstreet Composite Business Optimism Index for Q2 2024 stands at 75.9, marking a 4.2% increase compared to Q1 2024. Four out of six optimism indices have displayed improvement, with optimism for net profits reaching an eight-quarter high. The index, a key indicator of India Inc.’s changing business sentiment since 2002, holds significant correlation with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), standing at around 80%.

Highlights:

• Optimism for increased net profits reaches an eight-quarter peak in Q2 2024.
• Optimism for selling prices sees a 4 percentage point improvement, hitting a four-quarter high.
• Confidence in inventory levels rises by 13 percentage points in Q2 2024 compared to the previous quarter.
• Optimism for new employee hiring remains steady for the third consecutive quarter.
• Despite a slight 2 percentage point decline, optimism for order book expansion remains high, with 60% of respondents anticipating improvement.
• Food, beverages, and tobacco industries exhibit the least optimism across five out of six parameters.

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, noted, “The Indian economy maintains its steady momentum, benefiting from policies aligning with business expectations.” He attributed the optimism surge to factors such as lower input prices and sustained consumer confidence. Singh highlighted the robust optimism for selling prices, inventory levels, and net profit, reflecting enhanced private capital expenditure potential due to strong cash flow generation.

Singh further emphasized the positive sales outlook, buoyed by rising external demand evidenced by record-high merchandise exports in February 2024. However, caution prevails in terms of fresh hiring optimism, which has remained stagnant for three quarters, alongside a marginal dip in new orders. This cautious stance stems from global economic uncertainties and supply chain pressures, with businesses awaiting fresh macro indicators and potential interest rate adjustments before committing to longer-term resource allocations.

Key findings from the Q2 2024 survey:

• Optimism for increased sales volume sees a 1 percentage point improvement.
• Professional and administrative services exhibit the highest optimism, while the capital goods manufacturing sector displays the least optimism.
• Optimism for increased net profits rises by 6 percentage points.
• Professional and administrative services sectors are most optimistic about net profit increase, whereas food, beverages, and tobacco manufacturing sectors are the least optimistic.
• Optimism for higher selling prices increases by 4 percentage points.
• Electricals, electronics, and hardware manufacturing sectors display the highest optimism for selling price increases.
• Optimism for new orders witnesses a 2 percentage point decline.
• Professional and administrative service sectors remain most optimistic about order book expansion, while food, beverages, and tobacco manufacturing sectors display the least optimism.
• Optimism for inventory levels surges by 13 percentage points.
• Automobile manufacturing sectors are most optimistic about inventory levels, while food, beverages, and tobacco manufacturing sectors exhibit the least optimism.
• Optimism for increased employee hiring remains unchanged.
• Mining sectors are most optimistic about fresh employee hiring, while food, beverages, and tobacco manufacturing sectors are the least optimistic.

About Dun & Bradstreet: Dun & Bradstreet, a global leader in business decisioning data and analytics, enables companies worldwide to enhance their business performance. With a legacy dating back to 1841, Dun & Bradstreet’s Data Cloud empowers customers with insights to accelerate revenue, mitigate risk, and transform businesses.

About Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited: Headquartered in Mumbai, Dun & Bradstreet Information Services India Private Limited offers data-driven products and technology-driven platforms to help businesses make faster and more accurate decisions across various domains. Committed to supporting the Government of India’s vision of creating a self-reliant India, Dun & Bradstreet India focuses on bolstering entrepreneurs’ visibility, credibility, and access to global markets while managing risk and opportunity.

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