According to a recent study published in Nature Sustainability, the Global North, including industrial powerhouses like the United States and Germany, are accountable for approximately 90 percent of excessive carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, they could be required to pay up to $170 trillion in climate compensation to low-emission countries like India to ensure climate change targets are achieved by 2050.
The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Leeds, UK, demands an annual per capita compensation of $1,446 to India until 2050. It also suggests a yearly compensation equivalent to 66 percent of India’s 2018 GDP.
The research provides an exhaustive analysis of 168 countries, focusing on their historical responsibility for climate change, based on excessive carbon dioxide emissions beyond their fair share of global carbon budgets. The carbon budget, as defined by climate science, is the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted while maintaining global warming at a specified level – 1.5 degree Celsius in this case.
The researchers propose a compensation mechanism backed by evidence, considering both historical responsibility for causing and preventing climate breakdown. They envisage a scenario where allcountries achieve ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050, thereby limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
However, even in scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the Global North is projected to exceed its collective share of the carbon budget by a factor of three, thereby infringing on half of the Global South’s fair share. “This is unjust,” the researchers argue.
A few low-emitting countries, notably India, would compensate for the majority of appropriated emissions to offset the excess from over-emitting nations, thus keeping global heating within the 1.5-degree limit, the study states.
The top five over-emitting nations, including the US, Germany, Russia, the UK, and Japan, could potentially be held liable for $131 trillion, more than two-thirds of the total compensation. Conversely, the top five low-emitting countries – India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, and China – could be entitled to receive $102 trillion in compensation or reparations.
Countries had agreed in 2015 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels to avoid catastrophic and likely irreversible climate change effects. With global surface temperatures having risen by approximately 1.15 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution, CO2 emissions are being closely scrutinised.
Despite housing over 17 percent of the world population, India has contributed a mere 4 percent of global cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019, significantly below the global average, as per a United Nations Environment Programme report.
Research shows some nations are exceeding their fair carbon budget share, thereby disproportionately contributing to climate change. Many developing and underprivileged countries argue that these overshooting nations owe them compensation or reparations for the environmental damage caused.