Early this month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Bengaluru to inaugurate a slew of projects. A day later he did yoga at the picturesque Mysore Palace. The camaraderie between Modi and former chief minister BS Yediyurappa at the Bengaluru airport was a telling picture as to how much Modi likes the Lingayat strongman. It was at the behest of PM Modi that BSY made way for new leadership in the state, and apparently there is no love lost between them.
However, at the ground level it doesn’t seem the party is much interested to utilise BSY when it goes to hustings in 2023. “It has been 9 months since BSY quit the top job. He was not used in by-elections and MLC elections where BJP was handed defeats. He wanted to tour the state, but he was stopped in his tracks. He was not invited, either, in some party programmes that happened in Hubli and Mysore. There are only 9 months left for elections and BJP still doesn’t seem to have got into mission mode,’’ sources close to BJP said.
One of the main reasons for the not so typical BJP impression it gives is the dilemma on utilising BSY as it would dilute the position of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. The BJP is well aware that when BSY comes to the battle ground he will come with full steam. Even though many political pundits see BSY as a spent force, the fact that the mantle of next Lingayat face of BJP is not settled makes him indispensable. Who will carry the legacy? Bommai or BSY’s son Viyendra? While the party has fronted Bommai, it has kept Viyendra on the reserve benches as it discourages dynasty politics.
“In the case of Vijayendra, his soaring popularity is like a double-edged sword for the BJP. If they encourage Vijayendra, a parallel power centre is a natural outcome from what he brings to the table in terms of number of legislators. But at the same time if the party underplays him, it will be counterproductive leading to depleting seats in the Assembly in coming elections. “The BJP has to gain in the old Mysore region if it has to consolidate. This is where Vijayendra is at play. He has already sent feelers that he wants to contest from Varuna against Siddaramaiah or his son Yathendra, a battle that will have all the theatrics and high voltage drama. He has also shown interest in either Chamarajanagar, Gundlupet or Hanur, all from Old Mysore region. If he contests it will have spin-off effects on adjoining constituencies. But so far the party has not reciprocated. He has to spend at least a year there, if he has to contest and time is running out. The least or last choice is his father BSY’s home turf Shikaripura, which would be a cake walk. Any party worker can win there and it doesn›t benefit the party,” sources close to BSY said.
The big question, however, is will BJP dismantle the personality-based electioneering in Karnataka especially given the fact that it is the gateway to South India. The national executive meet at Hyderabad, picking four formidable personalities, PT Usha, Ilayaraja, KV Vijayendraparasad and Dr Veerendra Heggade of Dharmasthala, as part of Mission South is just a beginner from the saffron party. But when it comes to Karnataka, time and again, the calculations of the party has gone awry. You have a formidable opposition DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah in the Congress and HD Kumaraswamy in the JDS and all three have their charisma and personalities.
“The BJP tasted bitter defeat when BSY had walked from the party in 2013 and having said that times have changed and BSY has been retired and he doesn›t have the wherewithal to rebel, his son Vijayendra too knows his time will come as he has age on his side. Having won so many elections in the last 7 years, the BJP has mastered the art, but any misadventure or putting BSY on the back burner would prove expensive. Some BJP insiders say that the party might be reduced to 60 seats if BSY is not onboard. In 2018, with all the charm, might and power of the troika of Modi, Shah and BSY, the party fell short by a dozen seats. Vijayendra had asked for a ticket to contest from Varuna against Yathendra, but the party had denied, and had he been given, the BJP would have garnered over 10 seats. A fine balance between BSY and Bommai is absolutely necessary as the latter is now charting his own path which is understandable,” sources said.
Another worrying factor for the saffron party is the performance of the Bommai government, which is poor. There are rumours of dissatisfaction among legislators and cabinet colleagues. As a result, change of leadership is being reported continuously in the media. “Recent surveys conducted by some of the electronic media indicated this. As per the opinion poll, BJP will lose its ground in Old Mysore and Bengaluru Metropolitan area and still, BSY is the favourite as CM if BJP comes to power in 2023 and has emerged as the frontrunner followed by CM Bommai. To retain power in Karnataka, BJP has to do a lot of homework by utilizing the popularity of BSY and his son Vijayendra,’’ sources in the party said.