The Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft that went down near Kazakhstan’s Aqtau on Christmas Day while flying from Baku to Grozny, Russia, may have been “accidentally struck” by a Russian surface-to-air missile or anti-aircraft fire, according to military experts referenced in several reports.
Among the 67 individuals aboard, which included 62 passengers and five crew members, 38 lost their lives, while 29 survived, including two young girls aged 11 and 16.
An inquiry is ongoing, but aviation specialists, including those cited by the Wall Street Journal, Euronews, and AFP, have highlighted holes in the aircraft’s fuselage and damage to the tail section that appear to resemble the aftermath of missile shrapnel. A video shared on X by Clash Report, a military conflict reporting organization, illustrated substantial holes in the fuselage, some being small while others measured several inches wide.
Experts also observed that the aircraft was flying in a region where Ukrainian drone operations had been reported, and that Grozny, a significant target for Kyiv in the continuing conflict with Russia, boasts robust anti-aircraft defenses.
Russian military blogger Yury Podolyaka informed AFP that the wreckage displayed damage akin to that caused by “anti-aircraft missile systems,” implying the aircraft might have been “accidentally struck by an air-defence missile system. ” Matt Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer at Osprey Flight Solutions, endorsed this view, telling the Journal that the wreckage and the airspace security context suggested that the plane was hit by anti-aircraft fire.
A Russian news outlet, Meduza, concurred with this assessment, indicating that the damage seen in images of the wreckage mirrored that of surface-to-air missile impacts, which had also been observed in previous civilian and military aircraft occurrences.
Some reports, which TDG has not verified, indicated that Grozny had faced attacks from Ukrainian drones weeks prior, which raises the possibility that Russian air defenses might have confused the Azerbaijan Airlines plane with a drone.
Several survivors, all situated in the tail section of the aircraft, recounted hearing loud explosions shortly after their request to land in Grozny was denied. The UK’s Telegraph reported that these explosions were likely a result of the plane’s oxygen tanks rupturing in mid-air. A video recorded inside the aircraft showed a female passenger appearing to sustain shrapnel wounds to her leg.
The aircraft then reversed course toward Kazakhstan but encountered a second emergency, possibly involving a hydraulic failure, which prompted a request to land at Aqtau. Tragically, the aircraft crashed into a field approximately 3 km from the airport, with terrifying visuals depicting it struggling to maintain altitude before the impact. Azerbaijan Airlines initially attributed the incident to a bird strike but subsequently withdrew this claim.
The aircraft’s black box has been retrieved, and its data will undergo examination as part of the ongoing investigation. Should a Russian missile be confirmed as the cause, it would signify the second occurrence of a commercial plane being shot down by Russia or its allies, following the downing of Malaysian Airlines MH-17 in 2014 by Russian-backed forces in Donbas.
The Kremlin has requested patience while waiting for the investigation’s conclusion. “We need to wait for the investigation to finish,” stated Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.
Kazakh Senate speaker Maulen Ashimbayev also remarked that it was premature to ascertain the cause of the crash, underscoring that experts would reach their conclusions and that no country involved would conceal the findings.
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev announced a national day of mourning on Thursday and canceled a scheduled visit to Russia for a summit of former Soviet nations. He mandated actions to investigate the causes of the incident, offering condolences to the victims’ families and wishing a swift recovery to the injured. His wife, Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, also conveyed profound sorrow over the tragedy.
