The final phase of polling in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls on Saturday will witness virtually a straight fight between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party with erstwhile partners, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP contesting for their survival in the border state of Punjab.
In adjoining Himachal, the Saffron Brigade, that had won all the four seats last time, is locked in a fierce battle with Congress. The lone Chandigarh seat is turning out to be a thriller with the Congress and the BJP in an eyeball to eye ball confrontation. In Punjab, political pundits have almost ruled out the BJP, which would be competing with the Akalis for the third and fourth position. What is going against both the Akalis and the BJP is their support to the Farm laws when they were introduced in Parliament. The Akalis later broke the alliance, and though Harsimrat Kaur Badal, then a minister is fighting to win back Bhatinda, it is not going to be an easy task. She faces a stiff challenge from Gurmeet Singh Khuddian, the man who had defeated her father-in-law Parkash Singh Badal from Lambi last time. Khuddian has his share of problems, as some of the MLAs are not working wholeheartedly for him. But he is considered as a strong contender. Harsimrat is the mascot of her party in these polls and if she was to lose, it would be a great setback. The BJP, without the Akalis, is contesting its maiden election in Punjab in a long time. While its nominees, mostly former Congressmen, expected to benefit from the Ram Mandir issue, they seem to be struggling. There are multiple reasons for this. Lord Ram is revered all over India as also in Punjab, but in the areas North of Delhi, it is the Mata which is favorite deity.
The slogan Jai Mata Di is on the lips of every Punjabi and their ultimate pilgrimage is to Mata Vaishno Devi, Chintpurni, Jwalaji, Chamunda Devi and other sacred temples of the Goddess. The supreme irony is that while the Prime Minister is regarded as the foremost Hindu Neta in the rest of India, his appeal in Punjab is limited. Firstly, whenever he visits Punjab, he supports a turban. Secondly, he concentrates on renewing his association with the Sikhs like his recent post about the first Punj Piaras being related to him. His visits to Gurdwaras are highlighted, but he has never been portrayed visiting the Durgiana Mandir in Amritsar. The short point is that the Hindu card does not work as much as it does in other places. The BJP is facing a hostile reception from the farmers and many other sections of the society. Its efforts, to promote divisive politics between the Dalits and the Jats on one hand and amongst migrants and locals, have not succeeded. Similarly, the hype in social media for Amritpal Singh, who is contesting from Khadoor Saheb and Sarabjit Singh, son of Indira Gandhi’s assassin, Beant Singh, the candidate from Faridkot, could prove counter-productive for the Centre. Many observers are comparing the emerging developments to 1989 when Simranjit Singh Mann won from Tarn Taran and Atinderpal Singh from Patiala.
This is a matter of both concern and alarm since the deep state should have calculated the repercussions of all these factors. The reality also is that the BJP nominees, which include Preneet Kaur, four-time MP from Patiala and wife of former Chief Minister, Captain Amarinder Singh, have been unable to make much headway. Ravneet Singh Bittu in Ludhiana is also facing problems. At other places such as Ferozepur from where Rana Gurmit Singh Sodhi is the BJP candidate, the Akalis have consolidated in rural areas.
Arvind Khanna in Sangrur is fighting a tough battle and so are many others. On the other hand, the Congress and the AAP are doing much better and would be facing each other. The AAP has limitations since there is a power struggle on. Although Arvind Kejriwal has claimed that his party would win all the 13 seats in the State, there is unhappiness in the cadres over the non-participation by the Rajya Sabha members, who were keeping away.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has consolidated his position in the organization, and has now a direct link with Kejriwal, and not through others as was the case earlier. But the problems exist. The Congress is hopeful of winning at least half a dozen seats and its selection of candidates has by and large been good. It is trying to reclaim the State after it lost to AAP in the Assembly polls. In adjoining Himachal, the Congress appears to be in the driving seat in Mandi, where its candidate, Vikramaditya Singh, son of former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh is facing a challenge from actor Kangana Ranaut. Singh has the support of his father’s followers, who have vowed to get him elected. Kangana on the other hand, is making one faux-pas after the other, making things difficult for her party men. In Shimla, the sitting BJP nominee is facing criticism for not doing enough during the natural calamity which hit the State last year. Political analysts give the Congress a fair chance in this contest. In Kangra, senior Congress leader, Anand Sharma is fighting his first Lok Sabha polls, and seems to be the beneficiary of infighting in the BJP over the distribution of party tickets to the six disqualified Congress MLAs. He could pull off an upset. Union Minister Anuraag Thakur, is comparatively well placed, but he too has to cross many hurdles. The Congress chances have also greatly enhanced due to the efforts of Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Suku, who outdid everyone in providing relief to people during the floods and landslides last year. The outcome would be eagerly awaited on June 4th.