China is celebrating the first centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on 1 July 2021. It is said to be the basic foundation for achieving the Chinese dream which they perceived and set for themselves. Chinese Middle Kingdom Syndrome coupled with its hegemonic expansionism may have caught the world powers off-guard, but the Dragon has been rising, getting powerful right under their nose and with their assistance.
The timing and the emergence of China as a great power challenging and threatening to overtake the superpower America seem to be very cunningly crafted and executed. It is believed that China has laid two goals for its two centenaries. By the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, the goal has been to attain the status of ‘Xiaokang Society’, meaning moderately well-off society, an abstract theory rooted in Confucianism and socialist ideology and set the stage for fulfilment of its ultimate aim.
On the completion of 100 years of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049, it aims to rule the entire planet through its political and hegemonic clout, thereby fulfilling the ultimate dream of Middle Kingdom perceived during the 19th and 20th centuries, describing China as a single and the most powerful nation of the planet.
SETTING THE PACE: MAO’S ERA (1949-1976)
On 1 October 1949, Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong, chairman of the Chinese Communist Party, proclaimed the formation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), after a prolonged civil war since 1920. The victory of communism and ‘fall’ of mainland China, resulted in the suspension of all diplomatic relations between the US and PRC. Mao ruled China for 27 years based on his Maoism theories with an iron-fist and under iron curtain from the rest of the world till his death in 1976.
TRANSITION AND DENG’S ERA (1976-1989)
After the death of Mao, in 1976 Deng Xiaoping, the architect of modern China, opened China to the world. He led China through a series of far-reaching market-economic reforms and laid the base of China embarking for economic leap. His strategy laid through the dictums of “hide your ambitions and disguise your clause” and “hide your capability and bide your time”, worked extremely well for China. The world fell in China’s trap, especially Americans under Ronald Reagan underestimating China’s capability and ambition and advocating strategic cooperation with China and establishing diplomatic relation in 1976 after the death of Mao, largely on the premise and hope that deepening engagement would spur fundamental economic and political opening of PRC, which would lead to its emergence as a constructive and responsible global stakeholder, with a more open society. In the last year of Deng’s chairmanship in 1989, the world witnessed the ‘Red Terror of China’ once again during the democratic protests by students at Tiananmen Square.
JIANG ZEMIN AND 3RD GENERATION (1989-2002)
Jiang Zemin came to power unexpectedly as a compromised candidate following the Tiananmen Square protest. The incident shook China and it embraced a more integrated approach. It started working with various international organisations responsible for rule-based world order. It behaved according to the global norms and standards. Jiang introduced socialist-Marxist economy and China experienced substantial economic growth. In 1997, Hong Kong was returned by the United Kingdom and in 1999 Macau from Portugal. China continued to improve its relations with the outside world.
HU JINTAO AND THE 4TH GENERATION (2002-2012)
In 2002, Hu Jintao, a technocrat, came into power and focused more on the technocratic competence of China. He advocated for China’s peaceful development pursuing soft power in international relations and a cooperative approach to diplomacy. During this time China’s influence grew in Africa, Latin American countries and other developing countries. However, during this period China also openly challenged international norms and regulations when it claimed non-negotiable sovereignty over the South China Sea till the ‘nine-dash line’ based on 1947 Map, impinging territorial integrity of all states of the South China Sea and challenging ‘right of passage’ for maritime shipping. To strengthen its claim China started building artificial islands and military bases on disputed islands. Thus, in the first decade of the 21st century under Hu Jintao, China gave a mixed signal of behaving according to global norms at the same time exerting to regain the lost glory of it being the Middle Kingdom. The world witnessed the Chinese economic and military power and its growing ambition to influence global governance.
XI JINPING AND THE 5TH GENERATION (2012-TILL DATE)
Xi Jinping took over as the central figure of the 5th generation of the leadership of PRC in 2012. Since assuming power, Xi has introduced far-reaching measures to enforce party discipline, taking over a wide range of leadership positions including that of the newly formed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, National Security Commission of People’s Liberation Army and integrated military restructuring and modernisation, and new steering committee on economic and social reforms. Acting like a dictator and as an authoritarian leader, he wants to be a life-time dictator like Mao Zedong by removing the term limits by amending the Constitution. As the paramount leader, Xi has called for a multipolar world, challenging the hegemony of the US and the West, pushing the Middle Kingdom Syndrome with renewed strategy of the ambitious Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), linking 138 countries and 30 international organisations to China, in 2015. China in the quest for world domination provides loans to member countries, most being from the third world, on opaque terms which is resulting in the debt trapping of these nations.
Xi seems to be in a great hurry. His hegemonic expansionism and assertive display of military hegemony with its neighbours are quite evident. He is aggressively exerting for world domination through wolf warrior diplomacy, proliferating in international forums especially UN and its organs like WHO for submission through its economic clout, dominance in pharmaceutical industry, renewable energy technology, global wireless and spread its influence around the world, especially through its telecom giant Huawei. China’s ambition is also to have total domination and control over rare earth materials and their supply chain, in cyber and also in space.
However, amid coronavirus, whether a bioweapon or an accidental leak, China has leveraged economically, militarily and has shown its determination to push through its hegemonic behaviour. India’s response especially at Galwan on 15 June 2020 and occupation of Kailash Ranges in end August 2020 in response to its hegemonic expansionism in eastern Ladakh, banning of Chinese apps and trade war might have left China bewildered, but there is no sign of a pull back.
Taiwan’s determination and the response of America, Japan, Australia, and some other nations of the region in the East and South China Seas which China might have anticipated is not deterring China from its predetermined course of action. However, the joint effort and response by Quad in the Indo-Pacific, effectively rolling out of B3W (Build Back a Better World) in response to China’s BRI, and making China responsible for the devastating pandemic, might deter China and the Chinese people to change their mindset and mend their ways.
The writer is a strategic and defence analyst. The views expressed are personal.
After the death of Mao, Deng Xiaoping, the architect of modern China, opened China to the world. He led China through a series of far-reaching market-economic reforms and laid the base of China embarking for economic leap. His strategy laid through the dictums of “hide your ambitions and disguise your clause” and “hide your capability and bide your time”, worked extremely well for China. The world fell in China’s trap, especially Americans under Ronald Reagan underestimating China’s capability and ambition and advocating strategic cooperation with China and establishing diplomatic relation in 1976 after the death of Mao, largely on the premise and hope that deepening engagement would spur fundamental economic and political opening of PRC, which would lead to its emergence as a constructive and responsible global stakeholder, with a more open society.