Senator Marco Rubio had once said, “Leadership cannot be measured in a poll or even in the result of an election. It can only be truly seen with the benefit of time. From the perspective of 20 years, not 20 days.”
A cursory look at Shivraj Singh Chouhan from November 29, 2005 till date as chief minister of Madhya Pradesh provides a good glimpse of the man and his vision and its impact on the ground. In terms of generating ideas and electoral success, Chouhan passes the test with flying colours. However, ground assessment indicates many potholes, hiccups and challenges ahead. For the first time in his career, uncertainty seems to be clouding Chouhan’s future. In Bhopal elsewhere in Madhya Pradesh, Chouhan is suddenly missing from the posters, banners and cutouts. Typically, all BJP hoardings and campaign material in poll bound Madhya Pradesh have a big photo of prime minister Narendra Modi followed by the party chief J P Nadda. Below it, stamp size photos of about a dozen party leaders find some space and a closer look would show Chouhan giving company to state BJP president V D Sharma, union ministers Jyotiraditya Scindia, Narendra Singh Tomar, Faggan Singh Kulhaste, Prahlad Patel and others.
Unfortunately for Chouhan, the absence from posters is not the only indication of his growing marginalisation within the BJP. At the public meetings held by prime minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, Chouhan faces an ignominy of sorts when he is not referred to by name and none of his flagship schemes find a mention. Instead, the BJP has a theme song, “MP ke dil mein Modi Modi; Modi ke dil mein MP MP (Modi is in MP’s heart; MP is in Modi’s heart).”
Chouhan, for the past few months, had perhaps seen it coming. He is currently the longest serving chief minister in the history of the BJP or in Madhya Pradesh. But the politician’s inability to reinvent himself seems to have cost him dearly. Chouhan who had a reputation of a genial ‘mama’ tried to ape Yogi Adityanath bringing in bulldozer culture and making provocative speeches about ‘love jihad’ and alleged religious conversations. However, unlike Uttar Pradesh where religious polarisation comes naturally due to demography and politics of Samajwadi Party etc, Chouhan’s bid to sound like Yogi appeared shallow and without any traction. Perhaps the BJP central leadership was content with one Yogi in league of himself and Himanta Biswa Sarma playing an analogous role in Assam.
In fact, Chouhan’s earlier track record in maintaining communal harmony was worth praise. Madhya Pradesh has witnessed very few communal disturbances and response to low intensity riots has been quick, firm and decisive. In Chouhan’s earlier scheme of things, secularism and development used to work well in a BJP ruled state. His government had earned the Indira Gandhi Award for Communal Riots Prevention and Harmony for the year 2006 when it successfully quelled communal disturbance in Dhar. The Chouhan regime managed to hold namaz in a disputed 11th century monument in spite of strong protest from Bajrang Dal, VHP and RSS cadre. In January 2013, Chouhan again prevented riots at Dhar Bhojshala when miscreants had tried to stop namaz at the disputed site. Police did not hesitate to resort to lathi charge and teargas shells to disperse angry mobs.
At a political level, Chouhan who used to fancy himself more in Atal Bihari Vajpayee mould, tried to create a ‘Shivraj model’ instead of becoming a camp follower of union home minister Amit Shah. Those familiar with the internal politics of the BJP say it was a tactical mistake on Chouhan’s part. The BJP’s internal survey and some findings of professional agencies such as C voters brought further grief to Chouhan that projected a pre-poll dismal show. Chouhan, instead of getting pro-active, leaned more and more on his trusted bureaucrats who had little understanding of the internal BJP dynamics.
However, to say that sun is going to set for Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh would be a bit early and premature. At 64, Chouhan is trying to prove his detractors wrong by delivering the state to the BJP in spite of pollsters giving a thumbs down. If the BJP manages to get 115 seats in the house of 230, Chouhan would have a chance to move to Delhi perhaps as a union minister if a change of guards takes place in Bhopal. Having been in the BJP organisation as a general secretary and head of BJP Yuva Morcha, Chouhan has a potential to get himself a meaty organisational role too.
Chouhan’s political status as a credible OBC face is going to help him. With Rahul Gandhi relentlessly asking for ‘pichhda mange sau mein saath [ backwards need 60 out of 100], caste-based census and quotas for the OBCs in proportion of their numerical strength, sidelining Chouhan would neither be desirable nor practical for the BJP.
Chouhan has been a great survivor and has come a long way from somewhat diffident person to a towering leader. As John Oates had said once,“If you look over the years, the styles have changed – the clothes, the hair, the production, the approach to the songs. The icing on the cake has changed flavours. But if you really look at the cake itself, it’s really the same.” Chouhan, in many ways, has remained the same cake – unassuming, workaholic, dedicated to the cause…
But in this long journey, he gave undue importance to certain vested interests that did not bring any glory to his regime. This should have been avoided.
Rasheed Kidwai is an Indian journalist, author and political analyst.