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One has to politically and diplomatically target the five instabilities of China—Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjian, Mongolia and Hong Kong—if it has to be contained for the greater good of the world as a whole.




The emerging view in the US is that PRC poses the greatest threat to democracy and freedom. It intends to dominate the US and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically. The view emerging from the EU through NATO is that the scale of Chinese power and global reach poses acute challenges to open and democratic societies, particularly because of that country’s trajectory to greater authoritarianism and an expansion of its territorial ambitions. In recent times, China shifted blame from itself to all others for the spread of the virus, sought public expressions of gratitude for aid rendered, suppressed democracy in Hong Kong by flouting international commitments, undertook aggression against India, and threatened to invade Taiwan. All this assertion resulted in negative sentiments about China which spiked to 86% in some countries.

For India, the current situation in eastern Ladakh is only the tip of the iceberg. Chinese support to the ‘nuclearised beggar’ Pakistan is unabashedly expanding. The Brahmaputra diversion plan is disastrous for India’s Northeast. Militants and extremist groups of the Northeast are sheltered in China. It has reignited the Doklam issue. It is hyper actively driving a wedge between India and Nepal. It wants an entry into the Bay of Bengal by actively destabilising and coercing Myanmar. As it strives to surpass the US as the undisputed numero uno, it suppresses India, its main competitor. It is now widely propagated and discussed that Mao considered Tibet to be China’s right-hand palm, with five fingers—Nepal, Bhutan and the three Indian territories of Ladakh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh- that China was also meant to ‘liberate’.

The common thread: China poses a great threat to almost everyone through economic, military and technological domination and territorial expansionism. This needs to be tackled. 


In the early 20th century, China was busy fighting civil wars and taking disastrous ‘Great Leaps’ all round. It was totally internalised. In the latter half of the 20th century, China consolidated through internalisation. However it quarrelled with all its neighbours including India. In the last quarter of the 20th century, China reformed its economy and sharpened its politics to gain clout. However it still remained in the shadows, biding its time as per Deng Xiaoping’s ideas. China under Xi Jinping is now an ambitious, outward looking expansionist state. If this greedy expansionism is to be capped, China must be made to look inward as before. An inward looking China will get automatically contained. China cannot be made to look inwards economically or militarily. It must be done politically and diplomatically. Pakistan is a parallel for better understanding. Despite sporadic spikes in violence in Kashmir, the threat from Pakistan is far lesser than it was last year. Why? The political axe of Abrogation of Article 370 left Pakistan crying hoarse on the side lines. Further the ongoing PDM has taken Pakistan into uncharted territory. The internal political muddle reinforced by a weak economy, ensures Pakistan is less of a worldwide nuisance than before. Kinetic  action would not have achieved this effect. Similarly, Xi Jinping and the CCP represent an ideology which must be handled politically. If China has to look inwards its politics, propaganda and PLA must be enmeshed in problems within. One has to politically and diplomatically target the five instabilities of China—Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjian, Mongolia and Hong Kong. 


Taiwan: China wants to gobble up Taiwan to realise its ‘One China’ dream. Look back into history.  Long after Chiang Kai Shek, the original Chinese nationalist, retreated to Taiwan (Republic of China) with Kuo Min Tang (KMT), it was known as  the real China. If ever CCP becomes shaky, the democratic alternative has to come from Taiwan. Hence, Taiwan threatens PRC and CCP as nothing else.  Taiwan is a fully democratic system with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power and the KMT now in opposition. Keeping this island of democracy alive and strong at the  Chinese doorstep largely contains China. Despite fundamental political differences, cross strait investment, businesses and economic ties are strong. Economics, commonality of culture and  language provides  Taiwan a conduit into China. Overall, expanding political connections  and diplomatic relations with Taiwan force PRC and CCP to act irrationally. Presently only 14 countries have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and 57 have informal arrangements. This needs to be enlarged.  More  democracies must establish full relations with Taiwan. On its part, India definitely needs to enlarge the relationship. In a very implicitly explicit manner China needs to be conveyed that the ‘One China’ principle is under de-recognition. The moment ‘One China’ is not acceptable unconditionally, China will recalculate. 

Xinjiang: Xinjiang or East Turkestan was never integral to China.  Its autonomy  waxed and waned as the Chinese power varied. The people are different and their culture is more Turkic. The region has been  restive and unstable for long  with sporadic eruptions of violence. Xinjiang is strategically important since it borders the CARs, Afghanistan and Pakistan with the CPEC running through it. Presently it is under the vice like grip of Chinese repression. The US government estimated the PRC has detained more than one million Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, Hui, and members of other Muslim groups, as well as some Uighur Christians, in specially built internment camps or converted detention facilities in Xinjiang and subjected them to forced disappearance, political indoctrination, torture, psychological and physical and psychological abuse, including forced sterilization and sexual abuse, forced labor, and prolonged detention without trial because of their religion and ethnicity. Strictly speaking, this area is ripe for a serious rebellion if it gets some outside support through its porous borders. The US has already imposed economic and visa-based sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act. Supply chains involving Xinjiang forced labour are being curtailed. There is scope to formally investigate Human rights and genocide related abuses in Xinjiang. It is time to stop talking and start acting.

Tibet: For long Tibet was considered as the weakest link of the Chinese firmament. However, Dalai Lama’s Middle Path approach, Indian recognition of Tibet as part of China in 2003 and other religious, socio cultural and economic issues have given China a relatively upper hand in the past few decades. China is now embarking on a massive program to solidify Tibet in the communist mould, tinker with Buddhism and replicate the Xinjiang model here. The Tibetan Government in exile in India and a change of strategic calculations could catapult Tibet into centre stage to bring  China to heel. However, the US and India must take a conscious decision to do so. The US has already initiated action by appointing a special representative for Tibet. How that will be followed up will depend upon the incoming Biden administration. On India’s part the hesitation is twofold. Firstly there is apprehension that any meddling by India in Tibet will lead to China returning the favour in the North East, J&K, Bhutan and Nepal. However, China is already meddling in our affairs in these areas and beyond in our innards.  The degree of nuisance can go up only by a notch. On the other hand the relative instability increase in China – spatially and temporally will be extensive. The second aspect is legal. There is an Indian opinion that raking up Tibet will tantamount to nullifying  the 2003 agreement and it will lead to Sikkim not being recognised as a part of India by China. Well. For China, the 2003 agreement has no value like all  other agreements. That explains  the  aggression in Eastern Ladakh.   When we recognised Tibet as part of China there was no South Tibet claim. Their claim on Arunachal Pradesh started after that. In doing so, the 2003 agreement stands violated as it is. Also Mao’s palm and finger theory, which is actively propagated and discussed now (surely by the Chinese propaganda machinery) suggests that China wants Sikkim, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh one way or the other: The 2003 understanding be damned. Hence it is perfectly legal to rake up Tibet as not part of China. Once that step is taken, the rest will follow and options open up. The political decision is first. In my opinion it is inevitable. How to incrementally play it up and the methodologies to be adopted are a matter of detail. 

Inner Mongolia: Restiveness in Inner Mongolia is a recent phenomenon. China is actively  suppressing native languages and culture in ethnic Mongolian regions of China and trying to destroy Mongolian culture. Its new education policy envisages replacement of the Mongolian language with Mandarin as the medium of instruction in schools. Mongolian will be relegated to just a language subject. Huge  protests erupted in Inner Mongolia against this with thousands of students and their parents undertaking a region-wide civil disobedience campaign. Heavy deployment of PLA was resorted to. This sentiment found resonance in Ulan Bator too. Secondly, Mongolians resist conscription and do not want to join the PLA. This view has not surfaced officially. It very clearly indicates that Mongolians and other minorities do not identify themselves as Chinese nationals at the core. So, is there a movement for a larger Mongolian region on the cards in future? Worth exploring.

Hong Kong: Hong Kong and democratic protests are publicised enough and well known. China has politically subverted democracy and usurped Hong Kong when the world was busy fighting the Wuhan Virus. Prising Hong Kong out of China’s grip is well-nigh impossible now. However, it can be made the symbol of Chinese oppression and a testimony of Chinese scant regard to an international rules based order. It will be very useful in Lawfare against China.


International Action: While the instabilities are known, the question is how to keep China busy with these instabilities? First and foremost there has to be intent. The recognition that China is going to be an international nuisance has dawned. The intent to stop it from being so will have to crystallise and signalled. It has to be done collectively. USA, EU, India, UK, Japan and Australia will have to come together in some forum to execute the intent. Can Quad be the base for this? Worth considering. Secondly, all five instabilities are different and need a different approach but have to be tackled  simultaneously in a sustained manner outside the UN fold. A subverted UN is incapable of any action against China. Then there is the old adage that a strength is often a weakness. Hence China’s economy will have to be leveraged and used against it. For example, despite China embarking on a Dual Circulation plan, its exports will have to be increasingly curtailed incrementally. Alternately imports from China need reduction on a time bound basis. Linking  Chinese sourcing to these instability areas and blocking them will send a strong signal. The  BRI must be turned into a bleeding white elephant. Overall, China must enter an overstretch. Next. It is now established that China will hereafter be perpetually short of two essentials—food and energy. Leverage them. There are methods to do so. Weaponise religion if push comes to shove. There are many other options which have been already discussed and many more will emerge.    

Indian Response: Ideally, all actions to make China look inwards should be done on a collective basis since it is not within one country to handle all the issues. If collective international action is not contemplated India has two choices. Go alone or with the US. Why the US? India and the US have the maximum stake and ability in making China look inwards. If it is not possible with the US then be prepared to go alone. In all cases, India will have to seriously think on these issues and come out with a plan of its own sooner or later. In my opinion, sooner the better otherwise we will be only reactive. Also as we delay the issue and procrastinate, Pakistan and China will continue to ramp up the whole business collusively. It is in their common interest to sort out India. By itself India has terrific leverages in Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan. We need to have the political will to tread this path. Either way it will be forced on us. It is a matter of time.

Lt Gen P.R. Shankar was India’s DG Artillery. He is highly decorated and qualified with vast operational experience. He contributed significantly to the modernisation and indigenisation of Artillery. He is now a Professor in the Aerospace Dept of IIT Madras and is involved in applied research for defence technology. His other articles can be read on

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Emergence of Indian Armed Forces since 1947



The Indian armed forces, with strength of over 1.3 million, are the fourth largest army in the world today. Since independence, the forces have undergone a gradual transformation in their strength, operational ability, and role. As an associated force to the British armed forces in different military operations as well as to maintain internal security, the most dedicated, decisive, and strong combat power of the modern world with the aim of safeguarding the interests of the country against any internal or external threat.

The transformation of the armed forces started with the beginning of the Second World War. The strength of the military had significantly increased from 6 lakh to 2.5 million during the war. However, the impending independence of India led to British apathy towards armed forces, resulting in a drastic reduction of manpower, depleted logistics, and weaponry. The 1947 Indian Independence Act was passed by the Parliament of the United Kingdom on July 5, 1947 to partition British India into two new independent dominions, India and Pakistan. The act received Royal Assent on July 18, 1947. As a prelude to the Indian Independence Act, British Prime Minister Clement Attlee announced on February 20, 1947, a grant of self-government to India not before June 30, 1948. The Mountbatten plan was announced on June 3, 1947, having specified an outline of the proposed transfer of power and partition of India.

The partition of armed forces and distribution of military assets were formulated as per the provisions of Sections 11, 12, and 13 of the India Independence Act. A Partition Committee was formed on June 7, 1947, with two representatives from each side and the viceroy in the chair, to decide about the division thereof. As soon as the process of partition was to start, it was to be replaced by a Partition Council with a similar structure. As per the provisions of the act and the consent of the Partition Committee, the division of the British Army took place on June 30, 1947. Out of 11800 officers and 5 lakh other serving personnel, they were divided into a ratio of 64% for India and 36% for Pakistan. Similarly, assets, including ordnance factories and training establishments, were also re-distributed. However, the process of distribution was very complex as various military units had mixed religious structures. Hence, the inter-unit transfer of troops also took place. In the same way, all sixteen ordnance factories were located in India. Hence, it was retained by India and a lump sum payment was made to Pakistan to develop its infrastructure. The defence training institute remained in Quetta, and India had established another training institute at Wellington.

The Northern Command of the British Indian Army was allotted to Pakistan, whereas the Southern and Eastern Commands became part of the Indian Army. The Central Command was raised during the war and was disbanded in September 1946. Later on, Delhi and East Punjab Command were raised on September 15, 1947. During the process of transformation and division, 144 army units were disbanded. 61 units of the Indian Princely forces were returned to the states. The Brigade of Gorkhas, recruited in Nepal, was split between India and Britain. Of the Indian divisions which took part in World War II, the 6th, 8th, 10th, 14th, 17th, 19th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 26th, and 39th were disbanded, those remaining being the 4th, 5th, and 7th Infantry Divisions, the 1st Armoured Division, and the 2nd Airborne Division. Hence, the Indian Army was left with 88 infantry battalions, 12 armoured regiments, and 19 artillery regiments at the time of independence.

At the time of partition, the nations inherited a split air force that was weak in quantitative and qualitative terms. The assets of the Royal Indian Air Force were divided on a one-third basis, under which India and Pakistan got six and two fighter squadrons, respectively. The Indian Air Force, at that time, was composed of around 900 officers, 10,000 non-commissioned officers, and over 820 civilian technicians and administrative staff.

Reallocation of naval resources reduced the operational capability of the Indian Navy to maintain vigilance and patrol the eastern and western coasts of India as well as the islands of Andaman and Nicobar.

After Second World War in 1945, the Indian Armed Forces had only one Indian General officer, Major General Hiraji Cursetji of the Indian Medical Service officer. In addition to him, one brigadier from medical, three Indian brigadiers from combatant arms, and 220 other Indian officers in the temporary or acting ranks of colonel and lieutenant-colonel were part of the Indian armed forces. Till May 1947, the Indian Armed Forces had only 14 Indian officers at the rank of brigadier serving in combatant arms, with no Indian flag, general, or air officer in the combat arms of the armed services.

Sir Claude Auchinleck was the last Commander in Chief of British India. He was reappointed on August 15, 1947, as Supreme Commander of India and Pakistan till November 11, 1948, when this post was abolished. He played a crucial role in monitoring and executing the division of armed forces between India and Pakistan. It is an irony that the first Indo-Pak War and the intrusion of the Pakistan army took place in Kashmir while he was the supreme commander of both countries. As well, both commanders in chief of the Indian and Pakistan armies were officers of the Royal British Army and were reporting directly to him.

General Sir Rob McGregor MacDonald Lockhart, a senior British Army officer, was the first Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Army from 15 August 1947 to 31 December 1947. He was succeeded by General Sir Francis Robert Roy Bucher on January 1, 1948, and he handed over the command to the first Indian officer, General KM Cariappa, on January 15, 1949.

Similarly, Air Marshal Sir Thomas Walker Elmhirst was the first Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Air Force since 15 August 1947 to 22 February 1950. Air Marshal Subroto Mukerjee became the first Indian Air officer to took over Chief of Air Staff on April 1, 1954. He continued till November 8, 1960.

Rear Admiral J.T.S. Hall happened to be the first Commander-in-Chief of the Indian Navy from August 15, 1947, to August 14, 1948. Vice Admiral Ram Dass Katari was the first Indian to become Chief of the Indian Navy on 22 April 1958 till 4 Jun 1962. Hence, the transformation of the Indian Armed Forces was completed in 1958.

The Indian armed forces faced the biggest challenge at the time of partition. This process of transfer of power, assets, and demographic migration on a religious basis has witnessed the transfer of more than 14 million populations across the border, clubbed with massive violence and clashes. During this entire process of independence, responsibility for maintaining law and order was handed over to India’s own Armed Forces. Despite the heavy loss of manpower, logistics, and firepower, the armed forces acted in a very professional manner. Over and above, during this crisis of migration, the sudden attack of the Pakistan army and militia on Jammu and Kashmir was the real litmus test for our defence forces. Undoubtedly, joint operations by the Indian Air Force and Army halted the intrusion and saved Kashmir. Armed forces successfully completed the accession of Junagarh and Hyderabad and later on the annexation of Goa into India in 1961 into India.

Independence and the division of armed forces resulted in a heavy loss to the armed forces and took decades to recover. Since then, the Indian military establishment has gone into phases of transformation, namely post Indo-Sino war in 1962, the recommendation of Gen K.V. Krishna Rao in 1975, followed by the post Kargil war since 2000 onwards. The Indian armed forces have now entered into the era of the biggest reforms since independence, comprising of the creation of integrated theatre command, battle groups, cyber, space, nuclear, and strategic forces, and the implementation of CDS and the Department of Military Affairs. The modern Indian armed forces are in the process of convergence as a global superpower with complete dominance on land, sea, air, and space. Indeed, it is a great transformation of the armed forces since independence.

The author is, SM, VSM Former Additional DG (AFMS) & Expert in Defence, International Strategies & Current affairs.

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o commemorate the 23 years of victory over Pakistan in the Kargil War of 1999, the Indian Army on Monday organised a motorcycle expedition from New Delhi to the Kargil War Memorial at Dras (Ladakh).

The 30-member rally was flagged off by Lt Gen B S Raju, the Vice Chief of Army Staff from the National War Memorial, New Delhi on Monday.

Over the next six days, the team of 30 serving personnel who have embarked on this expedition will endeavour to replicate the indomitable spirit of the Kargil brave-hearts by rekindling the spirit of fortitude, courage and adventure synonymous with the Indian Army, said the Ministry of Defence.

The bike rally would pass through Haryana, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh before culminating the expedition at the Kargil War Memorial, Dras on 26 July 2022.

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Two Army officers were killed in an accidental grenade blast along the Line of Control in the Mendhar sector of Jammu and Kashmir’s Poonch, the Defence Public Relations Office said on Monday. During the treatment, one army officer and one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) succumbed to their injuries.

JCO Sub Bhagwan Singh

Captain Anand

“Last night, an accidental grenade blast occurred in Mendhar Sector, Dist Poonch, when troops were performing their duties along the Line of Control. The blast resulted in injuries to soldiers.

During the treatment, one officer and one JCO succumbed to their injuries, “said PRO Defence Jammu.

According to the Defence PRO, the blast occurred along the Line of Control (LOC) on Sunday night, when the army troops were performing their duties, thus injuring them. All the injured soldiers were immediately evacuated to Udhampur via helicopter.

As per the reports, one officer and one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO) succumbed to the injuries.

The Indian Army expressed grief over the death of two officers.

The Indian Army tweeted, “General officer commanding (GOC) @Whiteknight_IA and all Ranks salute brave hearts Capt Anand and Nb Sub Bhagwan Singh who made the supreme sacrifice while performing their duties on the LoC in Mendhar Sector. We offer deepest condolences to their family members.”

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Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari on Sunday said that the Indian Air Force (IAF) is planning to induct Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and Light Combat Aircraft MK-1A and MK-2 along with the 114 multirole fighters. This will be done to bolster India’s combat capabilities through indigenisation under “Make-in-India” in the future.

The IAF chief said that the move will not only “strengthen the Air Force” but also bring a “huge boost” to the Indian aviation industry as part of the Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the Narendra Modi government. “On the aircraft front, we are looking ahead for the AMCA and the LCA MK-1A and also the LCA MK-2 a few years from now. The case for 114 MRFA is also progressing well. With this, it will not only strengthen the Air Force but also bring a huge boost to the Indian aviation industry,” ANI quoted the Air Chief Marshal as saying.

“We have already committed for seven squadrons of AMCA. The numbers for the LCA MK-2, we will take a call as and when the first production model comes out and we start inducting the aircraft into the air force and we can always increase the quantity based on its performance and rate of induction,” he added while speaking about the number of units of the aircraft that the IAF is planning to induct.

When asked about the timeline of the induction of the S-400 air defence system from Russia into the forces, he said that it will be done as per the schedule adding that all deliveries should be completed by the end of next year. “The induction program of S-400 is going as per the schedule. The first firing unit has been inducted and deployed. The second unit is also in the process of getting inducted. Delivery schedules are on time, hopeful that by the end of next year all deliveries will be completed,” Chaudhari said.

“The threat of multiple fronts always exists. The capabilities of the air force in handling two fronts at a time will necessarily have to keep getting bolstered by the induction of various platforms. On the ground, we will need more radars, and additional SAGW systems and all of these are going to come from indigenous sources, for which the action is already at hand,” he added.

The IAF chief further said that the forces are fully in sync with the Centre’s Aatmanirbhar Bharat push which has resulted in the “quick induction” of platforms such as the light-combat helicopter and aircraft and radar systems.

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Ajay Jandyal



The Indian Army on Sunday inducted radars to trace survivors under the debris which was laid after a cloudburst struck the area near the holy shrine of Amarnath on Friday.“Xaver 4000 radar has been inducted and has been operational at Amarnath since late noon for finding any survivors under the debris,” said Indian Army officials. Earlier, Lieutenant Governor (LG) of Jammu and Kashmir Manoj Sinha on Sunday visited a base camp in Pahalgam and met pilgrims.“The security personnel and administration have carried out an efficient rescue operation. We pay condolences to those who lost their lives. Efforts are underway to resume the Yatra along with repairing the path. Pilgrims should come, we will provide them with all facilities,” Sinha assured.

Rescue operations underway at cloudburst-affected areas of Amarnath, on Sunday. ANI

The Amarnath yatra was temporarily suspended on Friday, till further notice. 

However, the pilgrims have been waiting at the Baltal Base camp for it to recommence.As many as 35 pilgrims were discharged following treatment, Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board (SASB) Officials informed on Saturday.“35 pilgrims have been discharged following treatment. 17 people are getting the treatment and are likely to get discharged tonight. All safe and healthy,” said SASB Officials.The critically injured patients were airlifted to Srinagar.“Critically injured people were airlifted to Srinagar. 2 people who were buried but were alive were rescued. We’re taking all precautionary steps. 41 missing as per Jammu and Kashmir police out of which some were rescued. Yatra may resume within a day or two,” said Kuldiep Singh, DG, CRPF.As per the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) data on Saturday, at least 16 people have died in the cloud burst incident near the holy shrine of Amarnath.Meanwhile, four Mi-17V5 and four Cheetal helicopters of the Indian Air Force were deployed for rescue and relief efforts at the Amarnath shrine on Saturday.The Cheetal helicopters flew 45 sorties, carrying five NDRF and Army personnel and 3.5 tonnes of relief material while evacuating 45 survivors from the holy cave.Earlier the officials on Saturday informed that the LG chaired a high-level meeting to review the ongoing rescue and relief operations at Amarnath cave.Meanwhile, the Indian Army informed that they have pulled up “critical rescue equipment” to speed up the rescue operations in the affected areas.“Indian Army pulls up critical rescue equipment to speed up the process of rescue operations and route maintenance in view of recent cloudburst of Amarnath in which 16 people lost their lives while several are assumed missing,” said the Indian Army.

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Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina on Monday said the most wanted Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist Talib Hussain who was apprehended from Reasi district is neither an “active member of the BJP nor a primary member”.

 Speaking to ANI, Raina said, “Hussain is neither an active member of the BJP nor a primary member. There was a letter circular, on the basis of which it is believed that Sheikh Bashir, who is the President of BJP Minority Front of Jammu and Kashmir had appointed Hussain on 9 May.” He termed the reports fake which claimed that one of the two most-wanted LeT terrorists, who were overpowered by locals and handed over to the police, was in charge of the party’s IT cell.

 The BJP leader further said after that Hussain had circulated a letter himself and resigned from the membership of the party on 18 May. “A couple of years ago, Hussain along with with his three colleagues used to come to the BJP office as a media person. He had also interviewed me many times, he used to call himself a reporter for a YouTube channel named ‘New Sehar India’,” Raina said.

 “As a journalist, Hussain clicked photos with us many times in the BJP office. Pakistan terror outfit wanted to target the head office of the BJP of Jammu and Kashmir. It has been done through the targeted medium and carried out such incidents,” he said. “It is too soon to say more on this matter as the investigation is going on. Not only the BJP, but all the offices of other political parties need to be more alert now,” Raina added.

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