Even before the polls were notified, it was a foregone conclusion that the Bharatiya Janata Party, that had won all the seven seats in Delhi, both in 2014 and 2019, was all set to repeat its performance in 2024. However, if one is witnessing a close fight in the capital now, the Saffron brigade has nobody but itself to blame. Firstly, there appeared to be little logic in replacing six out of the seven winning nominees of last time. These included Dr Harsh Vardhan, former Union Minister and one of the most popular and respected leaders of the city. Harsh Vardhan had represented Chandni Chowk in Parliament twice, and had won multiple times from Krishna Nagar in East Delhi in the Assembly polls.
He had been a minister in the BJP government headed by Madan Lal Khurana, Sahib Singh Verma and Sushma Swaraj and was in the Union Cabinet as the Health Minister. Another surprise omission from the list was Parvesh Verma, two times MP from West Delhi and son of former Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma. The BJP also replaced Union Minister Meenakashi Lekhi from New Delhi, Ramesh Bidhuri from South Delhi, Hans Raj Hans from North East Delhi and Gautam Gambhir, the World Cup winning cricketer from East Delhi.
While it may be argued that the party has the prerogative of changing its nominees, but in this instance, it was perhaps not in its interests to disturb a situation which was already in its favour. Secondly, the absence of the RSS cadres from the ground has weakened the organizational structure of the BJP. There is no doubt that the BJP is a very robust party but it has its limitations, if the RSS is half-hearted or reluctant to lend its support to micro-management issues.
The party continues to have an advantage, but trouble shall arise, if its voters are not persuaded sufficiently to come out of their homes to vote in this blistering heat. This job used to be executed by the RSS, whose cadres are any day more disciplined and dedicated towards their ideology than the BJP’s workers, many of whom are paid. Thirdly, the BJP has received a setback in these polls after the Enforcement Directorate arrested Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, after the polls were notified. The Election Commission should have ensured that this was not done in the middle of the elections to maintain a level playing field, and things would have been different, if he had been arrested much earlier. The timing was not right and has evoked a sympathy factor for the Chief Minister, which got enhanced after he was given the bail.
The BJP by throwing its weight behind Swati Maliwal, the AAP Rajya Sabha MP after she was allegedly assaulted at the CM residence, has raised unnecessary suspicion, that the Saffron brigade could have had a hand in this matter. It is highly condemnable that a young woman was subjected to violence at the CM’s residence but things sometimes take a different meaning when they happen during the election season. On the other hand, the AAP has deployed its cadres strategically all over the city and this time round, even the Congress, which has an alliance with the AAP, is performing strongly on all the three seats it is contesting.
The result is that there appears to be a contest happening on Delhi seats, with different political pundits giving different assessments. The short point is that it is not a cake walk for the BJP even though if it has to hold on to its initial advantage, it must ensure that the turnout by its dedicated voters is not affected by the strained RSS-BJP relations. This estrangement is certainly not good news for the Saffron camp and could leave an impact on the outcome of the polls. The Congress activists are by and large inactive since they have their own opinion on the selection of candidates by the party. However, they have no option but to back the candidates since it is at one level also an existential crisis for them, if there is one more loss in the city. The Assembly polls are due next year and the Congress has to perform well.
The city has in the past thrown up many surprises. In 1967 for instance, Union Minister Mehr Chand Khanna, who had done more than most for the rehabilitation of refugees after partition, was defeated from New Delhi, by then young Prof. Manohar Lal Sondhi, who had quit the Foreign Service to join the Jana Sangh. It is another matter that Sondhi in 1971 lost to unknown Mukul Banerjee of the Congress in 1971. In 2004, Union Minister Jagmohan was beaten from the same constituency by Ajay Maken of the Congress.
In 1980, the first Delhi CM, Chaudhury Brahm Parkash lost his first election to young Sajjan Kumar from Outer Delhi. In 1984, Delhi’s one-time strongman, HKL Bhagat vanquished his two main rivals—Brahm Parkash and Kishor Lal from East Delhi. In 1991, LK Advani was almost defeated by cine star Rajesh Khanna from New Delhi. Victors from the capital in the past include Sucheta Kriplani, Balraj Madhok, Atal Behari Vajpayee, KC Pant, Madan Lal Khurana, Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Sahib Singh Verma, Vijay Goel, Sushma Swaraj, Jagmohan, Jai Prakash Aggarwal and Kapil Sibal. Thus, Delhi has always produced interesting results and this time also, the outcome could hold some surprises.
Pankaj Vohra