By declaring six candidates for the Parliamentary elections in Punjab, the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be desperate to make its mark in the border State. The Saffron Brigade, contesting its first poll without an alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal after more than two decades, is conscious that it shall have to do something extraordinary, if it has to even open its account in the 13 seats which shall be determining the winners besides the lone seat in Chandigarh. The BJP has fielded Taranjit Singh Sandhu, former Indian Ambassador to the U.S. from Amritsar, keeping in view his Jat Sikh roots.
However, Sandhu, a decent man, making his electoral debut, may have to test all his skills in an unfamiliar arena and without the support of the Akalis. In the past two elections, the BJP which had an alliance with the Panthic party could not get the late Arun Jaitley in 2014 and Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri in 2019 elected. A similar fate awaits Sandhu, who would be entering the fray with many limitations. It has to be understood that the BJP, unlike many other parts of the country, is not a force in Punjab and there is not a single instance, where fighting on its own steam, the BJP in the past or for the matter, Bharatiya Jana Sangh could bag any of the seats.
The victory was always because of alliances or combinations that followed. There are 23 Hindu dominated seats in the Punjab Assembly and the Saffron brigade had done reasonably well in them in 2007 and 2012. But things have dramatically changed and after the failed talks with the Akalis, particularly in view of the Farmer issues, the BJP is on the backfoot. In Patiala, where Preneet Kaur, who had won the seat multiple times on the Congress ticket is contesting her maiden election on the Lotus symbol, may find the going tough. Her husband, Captain Amarinder Singh, regarded by many as the best Chief Minister after the late Pratap Singh Kairon, had suffered a humiliating defeat in the 2022 Assembly polls following his exit from the Congress.
A similar fate could await Preneet Kaur, who is popular, but perhaps the popularity has to reflect on the polling day. In Ludhiana, Ravneet Singh Bittu, grandson of the assassinated Chief Minister, Beant Singh is the BJP choice. He has been victorious on the Congress ticket, and many political analysts believe that there must have been compelling reasons for him to shift loyalty on the eve of the elections, since as a Congress candidate, he would have surely won. Both in Patiala and in Ludhiana, the legacy of two former CMs is on trial and if both the nominees lose, it shall be a huge setback for the two illustrious political families of the State.
The BJP is yet to announce the nominees for the remaining seven seats and in all likelihood, it shall be fielding Congress deserters in some of them. In a quadrangular contest, which is expected to be dominated by the Aam Aadmi Party, that is in power in Punjab and the Congress, it is unlikely that any miracles are going to happen. However, the Akalis under Sukhbir Singh Badal, have managed to redeem themselves amongst the cadres and the general rural voters, because of their hardline on the farmer issues. Their strength will also be tested in the forthcoming polls where Harsimrat Kaur Badal in Bhatinda, could start as a favourite, but may have to encounter stiff opposition from both the Congress and the AAP. Punjab has by and large voted against the ruling dispensation at the Centre since the reorganization of the State in 1966 when Haryana and Himachal were carved out. The only exception was in 1972 when the Congress which had won the Lok Sabha in 1971, was able to wrest control with Giani Zail Singh as its Chief Minister. There was a brief period also when Darbara Singh became the CM in the 1980s.
Subsequently when the state went through a period of terrorism, the Congress and not the BJP was viewed as the Hindu party in a Sikh dominated region. The AAP is now in control but is finding it difficult to get its campaign going. It does not have candidates and its lone sitting Lok Sabha MP from Jallandhar jumped to the BJP despite the fact that his name had been declared. The party has fielded several ministers for the Parliament which indicates that there is a dearth of candidates. There is confusion in the AAP ranks arising out of a combination of paid volunteers and those who have supported the party on their own. Arvind Kejriwal’s arrest has also complicated the matter. The Congress has to cope with the mood of the Hindu voters which is inclined towards the BJP in the wake of the Ram Temple inauguration.
The Hindu voter on its own cannot get anyone elected and that is the dilemma of the BJP. For the Congress there are other issues such as its stand on Kejriwal’s arrest. Voters would want to know why the party was supporting the Delhi CM and fighting the AAP in Punjab. There needs to be clarity on these matters and unless the leaders spell it out, the confusion shall not end. The Congress is eyeing both the Ludhiana and Patiala seat where it finds the BJP nominees vulnerable. Manish Tewari, the sitting Congress MP from Anandpur Saheb, now can be considered for Ludhiana and his present constituency could be given to someone else. Manish incidentally was also in the consideration for Chandigarh but Pawan Bansal seems to be the High Command’s favourite. Punjab is going to be interesting.