As the by-election in Ghosi draws close, political allegations and counter-allegations have peaked in the state of Uttar Pradesh. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) will go head to head in this election and chatter in political circles is at an all-time high. Deputy CM Brajesh Pathak of the BJP has accused SP supporters of threatening police personnel. On the other hand, Shivpal Singh Yadav of the SP has accused the BJP of misusing the police administration. Ghosi is being regarded as a “semi-final” of sorts for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that both parties are keen on winning. It will also be a test of SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichre Alpashankhak or backward communities) formula. The seat is primarily comprised of minority and backward class or Dalit constituents—whichever party has the support of these communities is likely to win here.
Both sides have put in a lot of effort. For example, BJP allies Dr Sanjay Nishad (president of the Nishad party) and OP Rajbhar (leader of the SBSP) have held back-to-back public meetings in Ghosi, while SP allies, including the Congress have extended their support to the party. SP General Secretary Shivpal Singh Yadav has been undertaking activities to strengthen the party’s standings. Akhilesh Yadav and UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath have also held public meetings to rally support for their party candidates, Sudhakar Singh and Dara Singh Chauhan respectively.
There are 430,452 voters in this Assembly constituency. With no Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) candidate in the fray, there is a fear of a split among Dalit voters. Therefore, PDA support here is crucial. Other significant communities include Yadavs (42,000); Rajbhars (40,000); Lenias (36,000); Nishads (16,000); Rajputs (15,000); Koeris (6,200); Kurmis (5,700); Dusadhs (5,400); Khateeks (4,200); Brahmins (4,100); Gaurs and Kharwars (3,500); Lalas (1,600); Nais (1,300); Kumhars (1,200); Musahars (900); Sindhis (800); and around 75,000 others.
The second-largest population in this area belongs to the Muslim community— around 60,000 voters. Bhumihar voters (48,500) also influence this region and can play kingmakers.
In 2022 Dara Singh Chauhan contested on an SP ticket, receiving 108,430 votes. BJP’s Vijay Rajbhar received 86,214 votes. The BSP (Wasim Iqbal) and Congress (Priyanka Yadav) followed with 54,248 and 2,012. Since BSP supporters are crucial here, the SP is paying special attention to president Akhilesh’s PDA formula. The BJP is also trying to implement this formula by fielding OBC candidates, apart from Chauhan, to attract Dalit voters. Additionally, efforts have been made to attract Muslim votes through a prominent Muslim candidate. Now it remains to be seen which party can bring the PDA to their side on this seat. The Ghosi Assembly by-election is scheduled for Tuesday, and the results will be announced on 8 September.
