By declaring its first list of candidates for the forthcoming Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, the Bharatiya Janata Party is seeking to create a perception regarding its preparedness for the battle. It is also an attempt by the Saffron Brigade to send clear signals that in these two states as also elsewhere, the prerogative of setting the political narrative was never going to be of its rivals. In Chattisgarh there are 90 seats and the BJP has released a list of 21 nominees while in Madhya Pradesh with 230 seats, the party has declared 39 names. On the face of it, the early announcement may appear to be in favour of the party but this may not necessarily be true, more so because of growing factionalism that seeks to impact the chances. This is also true in Rajasthan where the BJP is wanting to wrest power from the Congress but finds itself in a dilemma regarding the declaration of a Chief Ministerial face. In the event of it not projecting Vasundhra Raje for the position, things could actually become difficult. The indication is that for Vasundhra, who was recently made the Vice President of the party, like her mother, the late Vijaya Raje Scindia, once was, her chances of being the CM in the event of a BJP victory, were remote. In Rajasthan, a sizable section of the party wants Gajendra Shekhawat, to be the face of the party. Then there is Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla as well. However, Vasundhara seems to be most acceptable so far as the MLAs and former MLAs are concerned, and there is fear that if she is marginalized, then the victory of the Congress under Ashok Gehlot was more or less assured. Whether this happens or not, only time can tell. Coming back to Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, the Congress has a very strong presence, and under Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel’s leadership, the party has the potential of winning the polls. Attempts are being made, through the media, to create an impression that Kamal Nath and former CM, Digvijaya Singh did not see eye to eye on many issues. Digvijaya, had lately questioned the concept of Hindu Rashtra as supported by his friend and colleague, Kamal Nath but it does not mean that they are on the opposite side. In any case, the Madhya Pradesh campaign is being spearheaded by Kamal Nath, who has managed to revive the organization in many parts to face the BJP in the electoral battle. Although this may not have been officially stated, yet it is well known that the Congress too has already finalized a list of more than 100 nominees, who shall be declared at an appropriate time. In fact, when the BJP announced its first list for the two states, many in the Congress were happy that this could lead to resentment amongst the aspirants whose names did not figure. They would be vulnerable and could be exploited by the Congress for its own gains. In the Gwalior region for instance, there is huge factionalism in the Saffron Brigade where the loyalists are resenting the importance being given to Union Minister, Jyotiraditya Scindia, who defected to the BJP from the Congress. This could hurt the party and there are ample indications of this which are available. In the Congress, there was a bit of juggling that took place, and Jai Prakash Aggarwal from Delhi who was the general secretary incharge has been replaced by Randeep Singh Surjewala, who is also looking after the Karnataka affairs. Many within the Congress feel that JP was unable to devote much time, and therefore a change was needed as the party in-charge should be able to keep pace with Kamal Nath’s strides. So far as Surjewala is concerned, he is no doubt efficient but many in Karnataka wanted him to concentrate less on the state, since the Congress was already in power there. Moreover, the neighbouring Chattisgarh is being looked after by Kumari Selja with whom Surjewala has good chemistry because of Haryana politics where both are on the margins, because of the total dominance of former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and his son, Deependra Singh Hooda. The Assembly polls in December have a great political significance since a loss by the BJP would have ramifications that would also be witnessed in the Parliamentary polls that follow, unless both the elections are held simultaneously. According to an internal survey by the BJP, the party would have to perform much above its current potential if it has to humble the Congress. In Madhya Pradesh in particular where the BJP has been in power for more than 15 years, it faces both anti-incumbency and an astute political adversary in Kamal Nath, who is without any doubt the ablest leader in the Congress stable, both in the State and nationally. There is no politician in his party, who is as structured and organized as he is, and who understands the realities till the grass roots level as well. The three Assembly polls are very important for the Congress to win in order to consolidate its position for the Parliamentary confrontation, as also to send a signal to its alliance partners regarding its paramount status. The mind games are on but the final decision would be in the hands of the people.
