It is abundantly clear that the BJP would contest the Karnataka Assembly elections, slated for sometimes around April, under the overall leadership of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who was in Bengaluru on Saturday, declared that the contest in the state would be a straight one between the Congress and the BJP and the Janata Da (Secular) would not figure in the fight. Shah further stated that the people would have to choose between those who support Tipu Sultan or those who appreciate the achievements of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, because of whose efforts the Ram Temple was being constructed in Ayodhya and many other ancient places of worship were sought to be given their due place. The underlining message in Shah’s assertions was that he was making an attempt to pit Modi, who is nationally the most charismatic leader against the State leadership of the Congress. Secondly by trying to club the Congress as a party which was supporting Tipu Sultan, whom the BJP considered as the murderer of many Hindus, Shah was aiming to make this into a divisive fight. However, the BJP has to review its Karnataka strategy if it has to retain power in the only South Indian State under its rule. Many political analysts have been making a comparison of the BJP Karnataka game plan with its blueprint in Himachal Pradesh where it lost power. Like in Himachal, the resentment was not as much against the BJP as such or any of its National leaders, but was a negative vote on the nonperformance of the former Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. Most people were of the view that had the BJP replaced Thakur, a year ago, the outcome in Himachal would have been different. Even staunch supporters of the party did not endorse the CM’s leadership. They said that the State may have voted the BJP out of power but in the Parliamentary polls, the electorate would stand with Modi. In Karnataka, Bommai is also viewed as a controversial Chief Minister and many consider him to be a proxy of his former boss, B.S.Yeddyurappa. The BJP central leadership has wisely accommodated Yeddyurappa in the Parliamentary Board to placate him. Nevertheless, he may find it extremely hard to put a spirited defence in favour of Bommai in the polls. Many in Karnataka think that Bommai should have been replaced last year but for some odd reason, the Central leadership did not support such a decision. What the BJP faces in Karnataka is a very strong Congress party. Even though there is a leadership tussle between Siddaramaiah and D.K.Shiva Kumar, the fact remains that unlike many other states, the grand old party has a good organizational network and its caste combinations were well worked out. The target for the Congress is to win 115 out of the 224 seats. Although Shah does not consider the Janata Dal (S) to be a player, yet it can spoil things for both the major contenders. The arithmetic in the post poll scenario could be very different from the pre-poll situation. Political activity in the State has picked up and the campaign would start gaining momentum post January 10th. Karnataka would be a tough one for the BJP but with both Modi and Shah, master strategists, anything can happen towards the end.
