Before the Lok Sabha elections 2024, the Uttar Pradesh politics has witnessed a major upheaval with Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar leaving the Samajwadi Party (SP) and joining the BJP-led NDA on Sunday.
His return to the BJP may dent the vote bank of the Samajwadi Party. On the other hand, Dara Singh Chauhan has also left the SP. It has been reported that Dara Singh will join the BJP party on Monday. The preparations for his joining the BJP have been completed on Saturday itself. In such a situation, the strength of BJP will increase due to the involvement of small parties in NDA. By taking small parties into its fold, the BJP is killing two birds with one stone. Let’s assess what will be the new political equation of the BJP.
Just a day before, Subhaspa President Omprakash Rajbhar had met Amit Shah in Delhi. Since then speculations had started about OP Rajbhar’s return to BJP. On the other hand, this morning itself, Amit Shah had tweeted welcoming OP Rajbhar to join the NDA.
The BJP party is busy increasing the number of its allies ahead of the NDA meeting to be held on July 18. Meanwhile, SBSP joining BJP is a good beginning for the BJP. In such a situation, BJP is trying to help all those faces, who somehow influence a large vote bank.
Now, it is obvious that after Rajbhar’s return to BJP, there will be dent in vote banks of SP. Shifting of Rajbhar vote bank to BJP camp in Uttar Pradesh is likely to affect many parties including Samajwadi Party. But Akhilesh Yadav’s SP party is going to be affected the most. Mentionworthy, in UP politics, Rajbhar enjoys 4 per cent vote share.
Though the SBSP is a small party and does not even have the power to make any candidate win, it can definitely spoil the equation of votes. On the other hand, it can be said that OP Rajbhar can swing the votes in favour of the BJP on at least 16 seats.
The faster OP Rajbhar changes parties, the faster his vote bank follows him. His vote bank can win or defeat a party on 16 seats in Purvanchal.
He is considered dominant in Varanasi, Jaunpur, Ghosi, Lalganj, Ghazipur, Ambedkar Nagar, Salempur, Azamgarh, Ballia, Chandauli, Allahabad, Faizabad, Basti, Gorakhpur, Machli city and Bhadohi Lok Sabha seats. He also claims that he has the support of not only Rajbhar but also other backward castes like Bind, Nishad, Banjara, Maurya, Kashyap, Kushwaha. They claim spreads over 26 Lok Sabha and 153 Assembly seats.
SP’s big mistake for 2024
The SP has already whiffed the vote effect of smaller parties in Uttar Pradesh. Before the state polls of 2022, the party used this political gimmick and achieved success in connecting small parties with it. And now, the BJP has taken a lesson from the SP as it is aware that to retain the vote bank in the state, the smaller parties have to be saved from disintegrating and tied to the party. Thus, Rajbhar’s association with the BJP assumes significance in strengthening the BJP’s position in about 16 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.