Before the start of the Bihar elections, the view from New Delhi was that the incumbent alliance would make a comeback, more so with the Opposition in its usual state of disarray. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had not been able to lead his party to a convincing showing in the 2019 general elections; the party was in disarray with Lalu Prasad Yadav behind bars and his heirs squabbling over who is in-charge. There were also some very high-profile defections from the RJD to the JD(U). And most important, while Nitish Kumar had bungled over the way he handled the reverse migration of workers returning to their home state during lockdown, Tejashwi had done little for them either. In fact, he was largely missing from the scene of action with some claiming he was in Delhi during lockdown. All in all, it did seem as if Nitish had the upper hand.
But then something changed. One only has to look at the large crowds that Tejashwi is drawing to figure out that this election is not going to be business as usual. The buzz and the on-ground enthusiasm make it clear that this is not a manufactured crowd. Of course, it remains to be seen whether this will be translated to votes or not. But what Tejashwi is trying to do is move away from the old combinations and voting patterns. For one, he was the first to talk about jobs, forcing even the BJP to do the same. It was Tejashwi who promised 10 lakh jobs annually in his manifesto. First, the BJP scoffed at it and later when it realised this was boomeranging, upped his offer by promising to create 19 lakh jobs annually. Even Tejashwi came up with a counter, telling the public how he planned to deliver on the 10-lakh figure by pointing out that four and a half lakh jobs for engineers, teachers, doctors are already lying vacant in the state so he has to create five and half lakh more to make good his promise. How does the BJP plan to deliver on its promise? So far there are no answers, only announcements. In addition, the BJP’s promise of free vaccines for all has boomeranged with the Opposition wondering whether Bihar would get priority over the rest of the country? The problem here is the BJP is treating the vaccine as a sop aimed at a particular region or demographic, not realising perhaps that the vaccine is a global necessity that has to be distributed keeping a host of other compulsions in mind not just electoral ones.
Another interesting factor about Tejashwi’s campaign is that the RJD posters do not show pictures of either Lalu Yadav or Rabri Devi, two former chief ministers of the state. There is a reason for this. With as much as 58 percent of its population below 40 years, the youth in Bihar is more than the national average. If we talk of voters between 18 and 40, then their number comes to around 2.5 crore. Even if we just focus on the first-time voter, i.e. those between 18 and 23 years, then it’s a sizable 75 lakhs. This is a post-JP era generation, one that has not seen the Lalu raaj and will not be swayed by any emotional reminiscences. This generation is looking for jobs, stability and some may also vote along caste lines. This is the voter that Tejashwi is reaching out to. Which is also one reason he keeps harping on the 69-year-old Nitish Kumar’s age and asking about his retirement plans. As Archis Mohan, political commentator, pointed out on the NewsX show Roundtable recently, if you add both Chirag Paswan and Tejashwi Yadav’s combined age, you get 69.
Which brings me to the next question: Can the two combine their fortunes politically as well? We have heard speculation about Chirag tying up with the BJP to keep Nitish out. But if the numbers fall Tejashwi’s way, will Chirag tie up with the RJD? Certainly, both Chirag and Tejashwi have a cordial equation; can the two combine on a political platform? Well, there is a strong possibility that the real politicking will begin well after the ballot has been cast.