If the wave of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ram Mandir weakens even a little, then Congress can stop BJP’s hat-trick of winning 25 seats out of 25 in Rajasthan.
However, the Congress will have to distribute tickets with caution, practice caste equations, and unite to make the issues of the previous government’s assembly elections their main weapon. Also, they will have to avoid speaking against Prime Minister Modi. If this happens, even the veterans of the BJP will break into a sweat to win the election.
There is already anti-incumbency against leaders who have received tickets two or three times consecutively in their parliamentary constituencies. As of now, leaving aside the declared one or two seats, most leaders rely on the wave of Prime Minister Modi.
After the assembly elections, the BJP formed the government, but it has failed in achieving caste balancing. The impact of the government is not visible yet. An attempt is being made to run the government on the lines of Delhi.
Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma is not openly coming forward yet. After the electoral defeats of senior BJP leaders Rajendra Rathore and Satish Poonia, the politics of Jats versus Rajputs has intensified within the BJP. Allegations are made that BJP leaders defeated each other. Although Rajput leaders have been given appropriate representation in the government, the dissatisfaction among Jats is evident. After Rahul Kaswan’s ticket was cut from Churu, once again, the issue of Jats versus Rajputs can become a headache for the BJP. After Kirori Lal Meena received less representation in the government than expected, there is reported dissatisfaction in the Meena community. Kirori, who used to respond immediately to journalists, has now become a leader who keeps a low profile. If Meenas are unhappy, it is not good news for the BJP.
A sense of disappointment is also prevalent among the Gurjar community along with the Meena community. The Gurjars contributed significantly to the BJP’s victory in the assembly, and Prime Minister Modi praised them in his speeches. However, both governments did not get proper representation. These are caste dynamics that can only be addressed through the wave of Prime Minister Modi and the Ram Mandir.
If we talk on a personal level, it is not going to be easy for Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Arjun Ram Meghwal, and Kailash Choudhary. Om Birla won the previous election due to the Modi wave. According to experts, he is considered a big face against former CM Vasundhara Raje’s supporters, including BJP and RSS.
If Congress brings a strong Meena leader into the field and formulates a proper strategy, the election will become interesting. The situation is not very favourable in Sikar and Churu as well. If the Jats are genuinely upset, it’s a challenge for the BJP. Meanwhile, two significant events have occurred within the BJP. Firstly, there is open opposition against senior party leader and Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat in his parliamentary constituency by his own legislator Babu Singh Rathore. Secondly, there is discontent among the supporters of former leader Jaswant Singh Vishnoi after he did not receive a ticket. If Congress fields Manvendra Singh in Jodhpur, a tough competition will ensue.
However, it’s not clear which side Manvendra Singh is currently on. In Ajmer, senior leader and MLA Anita Bhadel expressed dissatisfaction openly during a party meeting. Rahul Kaswan is upset over not getting a ticket. Somewhere within the BJP, circumstances seem to be resembling those in the Congress.
In Bikaner, Arjun Meghwal is popular, but he might face challenges in caste equations. Congress’s Modha Ram Jat, belonging to the Jat community, could pose a significant challenge to Meghwal. However, Congress’s Govind Meghwal is also making efforts. In Alwar, the local youth Congress leader Lalit Yadav might pose a challenge to Central Minister Bhupender Yadav.
Congress might create an outsider vs. local narrative. If this happens, the election will become interesting. If Congress forms an alliance with the Bharatiya Adivasi Party in tribal areas, there could be tough competition in seats like Udaipur, Banswara, and Chittorgarh.
In Jalore-Sirohi, Congress’s Vaibhav Gehlot might give a tough fight, leading to an interesting contest. Hemaram Choudhary getting ready to contest against Union Minister Kailash Choudhary could make Barmer a closely contested seat. In such a scenario, these leaders will need the strong support of Lord Rama and Modi.