The Karnataka elections are slated for next month and this promises to be a high profile face off between the BJP and the Congress, with the JD (U) playing a supporting role. Ticket distribution has been more or less finalised and this is usually when inner party rivalries and turf wars are highlighted. Both the Congress and the BJP have their own inner-party wranglings: in the Congress, it is former CM Siddaramaiah vs PCC Chief DK Shivakumar while within the BJP, there is former CM, BS Yeddyurappa vs current Chief Minister BS Bommai. Interestingly, the Congress seems to have managed its internal wranglings far better than the BJP which is surprising because usually it is the other way around. Perhaps the underestimated presence of Congress President Mallikarjung Kharge has helped, as well as the focus of the party leadership in winning this state. If you recall Rahul’s Bharat Jodo yatra spent a great deal of time here and he got both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar to walk together along with him.
The BJP ticket allocation has seen the central leadership favouring Yeddyuruppa and the BJP national organising secretary BL Santhosh over the Bommai camp. Tickets have also been given to relatives and those over 75 years, going against the BJP’s stated policy on such matters. This has led to a great deal of public discontent at the party office with some leaders like Jagadish Shettar, a former CM quitting the party to join the Congress. Don’t forget that it was camp politics and a one-sided ticket distribution that lost the BJP the state of Himachal Pradesh.
The issues that will be raised are equally important. And so while Rahul Gandhi is keen to raise the Adani issue and the allegations made by former governor Satpal Malik, he has been advised to keep the narrative focused on local matters. Hence during his visit to the state recently, while he mentioned Adani, Rahul also spoke about the need for a caste census and the removal of the 50 percent cap on SC/ST/OBC reservations. The Congress is also using the corruption plank against the BJP by referring to the Bommai administration as a 40 percent government and the Chief Minister as PayCm. This seems to be in tandem with the larger gameplan within the Opposition, to play the Mandal card and caste arithmetic to counter the BJP’s Hindutva plank. But the BJP is doing the same, with its recent reachout to Pasmanda Muslims and playing up the Prime Minister’s own OBC credentials. And then of course, one cannot underestimate the power of the PM’s rallies to sway the votes.
In the run up to the 2024 General Elections, it is important for the Congress to win Karnataka as that will help it gain credibility within the Opposition camp. Especially if it can follow a Karnataka win with wins in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (polls are slated here later in the year). The Congress does have a fighting chance in these states, but it comes with a statutory warning not to underestimate the electoral appeal of the Modi-Shah duo.
