Akhilesh Yadav, the national president of the Samajwadi Party, is formulating a strategy to confront the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) nationwide. To challenge the BJP, Yadav is attempting to create a strong alliance of disadvantaged, Dalit, and minority-Muslim communities. However, amid these attempts, cracks have emerged in his coalition in Uttar Pradesh (UP).
Rumours of Om Prakash Rajbhar, a former partner in the Samajwadi Party coalition, joining the NDA had been swirling for some time, and now reports of discord with Yadav’s longstanding ally Jayant Chaudhary have also surfaced. Despite these setbacks, Yadav continues to meet with leaders across the country to build a force against the BJP.
Yet, Yadav struggles to retain his allies in his influential home state of UP, which holds 80 Lok Sabha seats. If Yadav wishes to challenge the NDA, he must stop the BJP in UP, as the state is of significant importance to the latter. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 seats, and the NDA 73, playing a significant role in forming the Narendra Modi government. The BJP won 62 seats, and the NDA 64 in the 2019 general elections.
While the Samajwadi Party struggles to hold onto its allies, the BJP’s preparations are in full swing at both the centre and state levels. The BJP is actively working to form alliances and it appears that the BJP may benefit from the shifting allegiances.
In a potential blow to Yadav, the Rashtriya Lok Dal may split from the Samajwadi Party coalition. This could jeopardise Yadav’s political calculus in western UP, including the M-Y and Jat vote banks in the Lok Sabha election.
At the same time, Yadav’s plans to challenge the NDA at the national level by allying with opposition parties do not seem to be reaping benefits in UP. Leaders like Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, KCR, and Sharad Pawar may have a base in their respective states, but an alliance with these leaders does not seem to have a significant impact in UP.