The NDA would ride on performance, patriotism and projections. A buoyant economy and a hopeful nation would certainly go with Modi rather than trust naysayers and messengers of doom.
India enters 2023 amidst hope both nationally and internationally despite the scare of Covid 19 recurrence. The country has learnt to deal with Covid. The likely herd immunity with wider coverage of vaccine and the need to follow the Covid protocol would ensure that economy is not disrupted again.
We cannot forget that when the First Covid Wave had reached its peak in 2020, India witnessed its worst economic recession due to complete shutdown of economic activities. In the first quarter of 2020-21, the GDP had declined by 23.8 per cent. A gradual recovery afterwards ensured that the country was better placed by the end of the financial year.
The nimble steps taken by the economy was overshadowed due to the more ferocious wave that came in 2021 leading to death and devastation of unprecedented dimension. The hospitals and crematoriums were having long queues and oxygen shortage compounded the problems.
The second wave ebbed soon and the Government’s vaccination drive provided the confidence that even when Covid 19 would not go away, Indians would learn to live with the pandemic. The figures of death came down and hopes surged ahead once more. Economic activities came back to the rails and everyone predicted a healthy economic recovery for India as the country picked momentum in 2022.
The GST revenue figure which is an indicator of economic activity was at its highest at Rs 1,67,540 crore in April 2022 which was Rs 25,000 crore more than the collection a month back. In October 2022, the GST collection touched the second highest figure of Rs 1.52 lakh crore. The robust economic health was indicated by the fact that for the last nine months till November 2022, the GST collection figure stayed above Rs 1.4 lakh crore.
There is fear now that people are talking of another wave of Covid 19. What would happen if the country witnesses another shutdown? The possibility is remote even if the Government is forced to implement certain restrictions. The country is much better prepared. The vaccination rate is very high and people may need a booster dose. The likelihood of herd immunity fighting back any major outbreak is most likely. Precaution should replace panic for better results.
The Covid protocol should not become a victim of politics as it appears to be in the case of the Bharat Jodo Yatra. To say that the Government is scared of the yatra is good optics but bad politics. People would not appreciate endangering lived of citizens after having witnessed death and destruction.
The year 2022 would be remembered for projecting India’s strength at the world forums. Prime Minister Narendra Modi emerged as a true global leader whom everyone wants to consult. India getting presidency of G20 is one more feather in the cap. There is something that is unique that wherever he goes, Modi creates a web of trusted friends.
At the Russia-Ukraine conflict India did not join the sanction group, fought for its own interest and the entire world acknowledged India’s situation. Russian oil kept coming to India without difficulty. But this did not disturb India’s equations with forces opposed to Russia. CIA chief Bill Burns recently credited the Indian Prime Minister for averting use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
“Prime Minister Modi’s views on the use of nuclear weapons had an impact on the Russians and could well have averted a global disaster in the context of the Ukraine war” he said in an interview. Modi has been persuading major leaders of the world to end the route of military conflict. He has spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin a number of times to discuss the situation and to argue that all issues must be resolved across the table.
There is every likelihood that India would strongly work for expansion of the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council. There is all likelihood that India would get into the prestigious club with veto. India has emerged as a matured country and has taken humanity based stand on all issues. Global leaders respect Modi for his vision and maturity.
But the coming year would be marred by acrimony and low political discourse. The political divide is likely to be accentuated. Gerrymandering of political boundaries would take place on the basis of survival instinct. While parties opposed to the BJP will trying to come together, they would face lots of conflict from within on how to reconcile differences.
Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra is an attempt at demonstrating that the Congress despite defeats has been the party to reckon with. There is race within the opposition to draw a bigger line and increase acceptability. Will others accept Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the forces opposed to the BJP?
What will happen to Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal United (JDU) who split up with the BJP to give vent to his ambition to take he best shot at the Prime Minister’s post? How would Ms Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamul Congress (TMC) react? She is also itching to play a larger role at the national level. K Chandrashekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) is more than keen to play a role at the Centre and leave the throne of Telangana to his son. The TRS has already set up a national headquarters in Delhi to demonstrate its aspirations.
Not to be left behind if Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that has been able to manage footprints in many States and will certainly claim the status of being a national party. Besides having two Governments in States-Delhi and Punjab, the AAP has picked up respectable votes in other States.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Narendra Modi is a strong coalition that would aspire to win more seats. The BJP on its own would try to better its performance of winning 303 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 by targeting between 350-400 Lok Sabha seats in 2024. The NDA would ride on performance, patriotism and projections.
A buoyant economy and a hopeful nation would certainly go with Modi rather than trust naysayers and messengers of doom. The Congress and leaders of other parties would find it hard to send across a message of cohesive coalition based on strong rival ideology. A ragtag coalition with the single purpose of opposing Modi would not carry much weight.
So, there will be rumours, baseless charges, fictitious reports, and slander by the Congress echo system led by the Left to defame Modi and this government. The Prime Minister has already hinted at this and asked the rank and file to be guarded and not get provoked.
It would be a real challenge to counter negativism and spread positivity. We have witnessed how foreign powers have used their money clout to create unrest and have someone who would be more pliant to the West. Certain vested interests don’t work within the parameters of morality. A nationalist government working to strengthen the cultural ethos of India would not suit them. The NDA Government under Modi has certainly been a story of India rising to realise its fullest potential.