With the election having crossed the halfway mark, the big ticket question now is, where has the vote gone? Before the elections began the general feeling was that the elections were just a formality, the process would be a walkover for the Modi government. However after the first phase of voting, given the low turnout the opposition sensed an opportunity. To the credit of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, this has been a game well-played, whatever the results. The halfway mark saw the trends of the first phase continue with a lower turnout than the previous election and no overwhelming wave for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Having said that it must be noted, that the comparisons, especially of a lower turnout are with the 2019 elections where there was a considerable wave in favour of the Prime Minister, post the Phulwana attacks. The mood then was in favour of a strong and decisive leadership that one found in Narendra Modi rather than in Rahul Gandhi.
Things are a bit different these elections. The Opposition has been successful in its messaging while the Prime Minister has been as quick to react. Whether it was the charge that the BJP was asking for 400 paar because it wanted to do away with the Constitution, or the promise of a caste census that would allow them to distribute resources according to the population, the BJP has reacted with its own defence and spin. What has helped the BJP in its messaging is that the Prime Minister and Home Minister themselves are leading from the front. And whatever you may say, no one knows the art of spin better than the duo. While the election has been stretched over a very long period, it has definitely not been predictable.
Now that it near the end, psephologists and analysts are venturing an opinion. While the majority see the Prime Minister making a comeback, the figures vary from the BJP retaining its lead or at best improving it to 315 (given a two year anti incumbency that is no mean feat), or else bringing the numbers down from 240 to 290. But where they all agree is this – that no matter if the BJP fails to get a simple majority. Even if the figure falls to 240, Narendra Modi will remain Prime Minister.
As for the QED – wait for June 4.
