India’s economy is on track to surpass the USD 7 trillion mark by 2030 even under conservative growth estimates, according to Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission. Speaking at the India Economic Conclave hosted by one of India’s news channels on Thursday, Panagariya stated that with aggressive growth and pending reforms, the economy could potentially reach USD 9 trillion.
“Conservative, I would say, USD 7 trillion. Aggressive, I would say, USD 9 trillion. It’s doable. A lot of the pieces are in place. If we implement a few more pending reforms, we can accelerate this growth,” Panagariya remarked during the event. He highlighted the significant role of reforms in achieving higher growth rates. “Certainly, if we undertake a few more reforms, we can beat the 10 per cent growth in current dollar terms by a couple of percentage points, getting to 11-12 per cent. This would propel the economy to somewhere between USD 9 and 10 trillion by the early 2030s,” he added. Panagariya also emphasized the need to address structural challenges such as the high cost of urban land. He pointed out that expensive urban real estate remains a barrier to the development of viable commercial rental housing.
“Urban land in India is extremely expensive. Rental leases in major cities are about 2-3 per cent, while interest rates are around 8%. This makes it impossible to have sustainable commercial rental housing,” he noted.
In addition to economic growth, Panagariya also shared insights on investment strategies, recommending equities as a preferred long-term investment over gold and real estate. “If you want to pick one, pick equities. Over a 10-year period, staying invested in equities yields better returns than any other asset class. You don’t have to keep changing your portfolio daily; even a random approach in equities can outperform other investments,” he suggested.
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On real estate, he advised a cautious approach, as returns depend heavily on specific market conditions such as location and urban development. “Real estate is more specific. The returns depend on whether you invest in urban, rural, semi-urban, or tier-1 and tier-2 areas. It requires studying the specific market,” he added. Panagariya’s insights underline the importance of reforms and strategic investments to capitalize on India’s economic potential in the coming decade.
