The ouster of the PM Hasina regime and her exile on 5 Aug 2024 as a consequence of the anti-government agitation has once again coined the history of blood-shaded transition of power in the Bangla Desh since its inception.
The student movement was led by Nurul Islam Nahid a Sociology student, Abu Bakar Mazumder, a Geography student, and Asif Mahmud, a language studies student
was launched as a demand for justice and equality and to end discrimination by abolishing quota for the descendants of freedom fighters under which 30 percent of jobs were reserved, though later the Supreme Court reduced reservation up to 7 percent, however, student peaceful movement continued, and accelerated due to the anti-movement course of the student wing of the ruling Awami League and very harsh police action against students resulting massive violence and death of innocent people. The peaceful agitation slipped into the hands of the Jamat e Islami, an extremist and banned outfit due to its extreme anti-minority and anti-establishment ideology as well as direct nexus with ISI and other terror outfits. Jamat e Islami and Tarique Rahman, son of the former PM Khalida Zia, a fugitive politician, business, and acting chairman of Bangladesh Nationalist Party. The support of ISI Western funding played a pivotal role in turning a peaceful agitation into a large-scale blood-shaded turmoil to ensure the ouster of the almost 15-year-old regimen of Awami League and exile of the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The role of the Bangla Desh Army remained dubious at this juncture as the Army withdrew its support to the government and joined police forces to decline to step in to crush the agitation and compelled the PM to step down immediately and served the ultimatum to leave the country within forty-five minutes. President Mohammad Shahabuddin on the behest of the Army Chief accepted the resignation of the PM and dissolved the parliament immediately to pave the way for the transfer of power to the Army-controlled interim government.
The 15-year-long regimen of PM Sheikh Hasina shall be evaluated as a mix and match of her achievements to provide stability and accelerated pace to the growth of the country as well as debacle due to suppression of opposition parties and failure to assess the gravity of unrest and pulse of the masses. She has been highly successful in maintaining excellent diplomatic ties with India and China as well as curbing the activities of extreme right-wing and terrorist organizations like ULFA, and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami which have been active against Hindu minorities in Bangla Desh and proactive in triggering insurgency in India and Myanmar.
During her regimen, the Indian investment has crossed 10 billion US Dollars whereas bilateral trade has witnessed towering growth. Despite good relations with India, she continues to have Chinese weapons and strategic partnerships.
However, she was in the eyes of the Western block as she did not allow the US and its allies to have Naval or Air Bases in its sovereignty to enable them to achieve dominance in the region to watch and control India and China both in the AOR of Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean as well as the sensitive northeast India. It is not a mere coincidence that South East Asia has witnessed several student agitations in the recent past in Pakistan, Srilanka, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, and now Bangladesh to fuel the ouster of established governments in the respective countries. As such US and Western intelligence agencies are very much known to trigger mass student movements against ruling outfits across the globe to ensure the ouster of governments not of their choice. Hence India should also keep a strong hawk eye on such agitations and acts of international conspiracies.
President Mohammed Shahabuddin administered The Oath to Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus as a head of interim government till the Parliament elections are held. The interim government comprising 17 members from different spectrums of the society includes two prominent student leaders of agitation Nahid Islam and Asif Mahmud, Tribal leader Supradip Chakma, and prof Vidhan Ranjan Roy as a minority representative. However, the ultimate key of administration will remain with the Army Chief, General Waker Uz Zaman.
The future political scenario in Bangladesh is uncertain and appears to be volatile. If ISI, CIA, and Zamat e Islami succeed then BNP led by Tarique Zia will continue to dominate as an extremely rightist, anti-Hindu minority, and anti-India, yet Pro-China and Pakistan block.
On the other side, the student leaders have become the symbol of Countries’ political activism. If the student wing can hold its ground and stand against such anti-Bangladesh elements then a new era of political establishment other than Awami League and BNP may grow and put forward a new horizon to the equation of governance in Bangladesh.
Hence it would be prudent to watch how and when elections are being held in Bangladesh as well as ensure absolute free fair transparency and participation of all the political outfits including Awami League and BNP. Whether the country will see a smooth peaceful transition of power or slip into the stronghold of Army brass again as it has happened earlier on numerous occasions.
India and Bangla Desh share a highly complex geographical, strategic, and cultural position. Both countries share a 4,096-kilometre-long international land border, a huge river water reservoir, and a surface buffer zone to have additional access to the north-east, it denies direct access to other countries into the Bay of Bengal, particularly around coastal regions and Andaman Nicobar regions.
India has to deal with the government of the day in Bangladesh in a highly tactful manner solely based on the principle of Indo-Bangla long-term geopolitical, development, and strategic centric policy of mutual interest rather than the personality-centric for short-term and intermediate achievements.
Our immediate problems are how to safeguard the interests of Hindu minorities in Bangladesh, restrict illegal migration, and thaw the tidal wave of anti-India sentiments and terror outfits on the soil of Bangla Desh.
Maj Gen J.K.S. Parihar, Sena Medal , Bar to Vishisht Seva Medal (Retd.) Former Additional Director General, AFMS and Expert on Defence and International Strategic Affairs
