The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has rejected the findings of a recent study published in the journal Science Advances, which asserts that life expectancy in India dropped significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
The ministry described the study’s estimates as “untenable and unacceptable.”
The study published in Science Advances proposed that India experienced a 2.6-year decrease in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020. It highlighted that socially disadvantaged groups, including Muslims and Scheduled Tribes, faced the greatest losses, with females experiencing a more substantial decline of 3.1 years compared to 2.1 years for males.
The health ministry pointed out several methodological flaws in the study, noting that the authors used a non-representative subset of households from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), conducted between January and April 2021, to extrapolate national mortality rates. The ministry argued that the NFHS sample is only representative when considered in its entirety, and analyzing just 23% of households from 14 states cannot accurately reflect national mortality trends.
The ministry also criticized the study for potential selection and reporting biases, given that the data was collected during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic. It emphasized that India’s Civil Registration System (CRS) is reliable, capturing over 99% of deaths.
“This reporting has constantly increased from 75% in 2015 to over 99% in 2020,” it said.
The government observed that death registrations rose by about 474,000 in 2020 compared to 2019, a trend that aligns with patterns from previous years and cannot be attributed solely to the pandemic.
“Excess number is also due to an increasing trend of death registration in CRS (it was 92% in 2019) and a larger population base in the succeeding year,” the ministry added.
The government highlighted that the Sample Registration System (SRS), which encompasses a broad and varied population nationwide, reported minimal to no excess mortality in 2020 compared to 2019.
Additionally, the government challenged the study’s claims regarding age and sex-related increases in mortality. Official data indicates that Covid-19 mortality was higher among males and older age groups, contrary to the study’s findings that suggested greater excess mortality among younger individuals and females.
“These inconsistent and unexplainable results in the published paper further reduce any confidence in its claims,” it said.
