India will have the embarrassing distinction of being the world’s most populous nation in years to come. Despite it, it does not seem to be the alarming prospect it was once believed to be. All strata of the society have begun to implement family planning and fertility has consistently diminished to a level where two parents are being replaced by two children. India has judiciously managed not to let the burden of a burgeoning population pose an impediment to its continued economic growth. However, population transformation brings some changes to which we are yet to adjust.
While presenting the 2024 budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pledged a committee to look over India’s population expansion to make sure that the country is on track to accomplish the ambitious Viksit Bharat mega goal by 2047. We devoutly hope that this step reflects a paradigm shift in public discourse regarding the course of India’s demographic transformation, commencing nearly 50 years after the draconian imposition of the population control programme in 1976.
We hope that instead of getting entangled in the old political discourse of population explosion this committee will genuinely work on reshaping the policy agenda that rides the inevitable demographic tsunami . This will necessitate focusing on a plethora of priorities.
First, That India’s demographic reality for 2047 is obvious to everyone must be acknowledged. The workforce of 2047 will be in contrast to the workforce of 2024. At present, 33 per cent of the population belongs to the age group of 20-29, while 23 per cent of the population is aged 40-59. Each mentioned age group will comprise about 28 per cent of the population in 2047. The percentage of the young workforce will diminish and the old workforce will rise. We must focus on persistent skill enhancement and on-the-job training above and beyond formal education to ensure that this growing percentage of middle-aged workers keep themselves updated with the changing requirements of an increasingly technologically controlled economy.
Second, We must enhance the ability of this elderly population to be self-sustaining in the scenario of an amalgamation of rising numbers of elderly and a declining number of children to aid them. A fusion of policies, including enhanced old age pension schemes, raising retirement age, and increased ability to sell land or homes is required.
Third, the burden of child care for women diminishes with the decline in fertility. The Sociologist Sojin Yu ’s analysis of National Family Health Survey data reveals that an average woman spent about 14 years nurturing children under age five in 1993, while that number diminished to eight years in 2021. However, the time disentangled from childcare has not been engaged in increased participation in productive activities. We will squander the opportunity of utilising a demographic advantage into a gender advantage, unless we find ways of creating a liberal labour market for women. Through the creative amalgamation of Anganwadi and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the accessibility of childcare can be ameliorated, which will aid in expanding women’s competence to showcase their prowess in the job market.
If it is approved, MGNREGA projects or works can incorporate rotational provision of childcare under the superintendence of an adept early childhood educator.
Fourth, demographic changes will not be witnessed at the same rate by the entire country. Population aging will also be most conspicuous in the southern or more developed states, as fertility decline was first witnessed here. The number of individuals ages 15-59 aiding children under 15 and older population above 60 is defined as Dependency burden. It will vary significantly between states. The demographer P M Kulkarni observed that 44 employed-age adults supported 100 dependents in 2021, in Bihar, while in Tamil Nadu, 50 adults supported the same population. The scenario will reverse with the worker-to-dependent ratio altering to 47 in Bihar and 24 in Tamil Nadu by 2051.
In short, in historically deemed demographically explosive states, such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, the future of India’s elderly and children will rest on workers’ efficiency. The real challenge lies in making the workers productive in these states to ensure the future welfare of all Indians. The newly formed 16th Finance Commission will be confronted by this challenge as it focuses on inter-state allotments.
Historically, concerns about demographic explosion dominate the discourse on population in India. However, it is high time we moved beyond the Emergency era paranoia and look through the prisms of other nations.
China enforced an authoritarian one- child policy in its quest for swift population control, bringing it to a demographic downhill where the requirements of its ageing population have commenced to decelerate its economic growth. It relaxed the one-child limitation but it failed in increasing fertility. This illustrates that India should abstain from a similar alarmist approach and let fertility ebb continue at a natural pace. Let us adjust to the demographic reality gracefully. Demographers, economists, sociologists, and public policy experts must pay multifaceted attention to these complex challenges .Such a judicious move to set up a high-profile committee to assess the challenges posed by demographic transformation in collaboration with the 16 th Finance Commission will go a long way in accomplishing this ambitious goal.
Dr. Ravi Prakash Tiwari has the world record for having written 2100 puns in his book, Pun Is Fun.
