In its eternal quest for a non-aligned—multilateral, in current parlance—world, India is now apparently pursuing the Japan route to rope in Russia into the IndoPacific construct. The idea is to conduct trilateral naval exercises involving these three countries, even though Russia is firmly aligned with China and sees “Indo-Pacific” as a “battleground” to contain its “friend” China. But then a section of Indian establishment’s love for and loyalty to Russia is touching, so much so that they forget that China is a serious factor in India-Russia relationship because of Moscow’s dependence on Beijing. Notwithstanding the hiccups in China-Russia relationship over China claiming Vladivostok or getting active in Russia’s areas of influence in Central Asia, or by “carving” out a Polar Silk Route, the fact is, “turned away” by the West, a funds-starved Russia is getting increasingly dependent on China. In 2018, China alone accounted for over 15% of Russia’s total trade, while Russia accounted for less than 1% of China’s total trade, with oil being its primary export to China. Chinese technology has flooded Russia; manufacturing is coming under the control of the Chinese; Huawei is rolling out 5G there; the two countries have strong defence ties, even though China has overtaken Russia to become the second largest weapons manufacturer in the world after the United States—whether through reverse engineering western or Russian technology, is a different matter. China and Russia are also united in their goal against a western dominated “free” world. The bottom line is, Russia and China are too close for India’s comfort at a time when China is India’s number one enemy—unless of course our foreign policy mandarins are still unwilling to call an enemy an enemy. In fact, it is surprising that we forget that in spite of Russia’s great power pretensions, its GDP is half of India’s ($1.64 tn to $2.93 tn), that its economy is not in great shape and that it is not India’s job to prop up Russia’s defence industry for old times’ sake.
Whatever be the talk about multipolarity, China is pushing the world towards a bipolar construct, where there are two superpowers, the US and China and the so-called different poles function within this broader bipolarity. Our problem is, enamoured of our past association with the Soviets and firm in our belief that Russia “won’t let us down”, we refuse to acknowledge that Russia has joined the Chinese bloc. In such a scenario, why is RIC (Russia, India, China) still being discussed? Russia is apparently planning an RIC summit, which it wants the leaders of the three countries to attend. India attending such a summit will not only be a betrayal of the human cost it has paid in the ravines of Galwan and the daily cost it is paying by keeping its soldiers locked in a standoff with the Chinese along the LAC, but also will send out a wrong signal to the world community and the businesses shifting out of China. At a time when “Made in China” is becoming an anathema, at a time when manufacturers are looking to shift to a western-friendly country, at a time when China is done biding its time and is showing its malign face to the world, does it make sense, for “old times’ sake”, to cozy up to a Russia that is joined at the hips with China? It is not in India’s interest to stay non-committal to the concert of democracies coming together to counter an authoritarian China—it’s in China’s interest. Russia is right, the Indo-Pacific construct is anti-China. Let us not pretend otherwise.
