The US Defence Department’s report indicates that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal rapidly. The report has sparked a debate and has raised concern for the US. Satellite photographs which were taken in 2021 also indicated that Beijing was finally expanding its nuclear arsenal dramatically, said The National Interest.
This is contrary to China’s stance on nuclear weapons. People’s Liberation Army has tested a space-based nuclear delivery system in October, hinting that it is working on more weapons to counter the United States’ limited-capacity missile defence systems. Historically, China always maintained that it keeps a significantly smaller nuclear arsenal than Russia or the US. China calls it ‘minimum deterrence’ meaning it has just enough nuclear to ensure Beijing’s retaliatory attack. Also, Beijing’s No First Use policy professes that nuclear weapons would only be used in response to an enemy’s nuclear first strike, reported the US-based think tank.
So is the current dramatic expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal a pretence? Taken together two reports published in late 2021 offer a measured perspective on changes to China’s nuclear forces — Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China released by the Department of Defense; and Chinese Nuclear Forces 2021 by Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen, said the think tank.
Now, the question arises that how many nuclear weapons does China possess? According to the Defense Department, China is estimated to have “low 200s” nuclear warheads in 2020, a total anticipated to be doubled, while the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists put the figure at 350.
However, according to the Defense Department’s projection for 2021, a new normal has emerged. “The accelerating pace of PRC’s nuclear expansion may enable the PRC to have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027,” the report states.
