Talk of a Russia-India-China (RIC) alliance against the US, led by Donald Trump, is gaining traction in the Indian media, but the idea is strategically flawed and dangerous for India. Trust gaps, clashing national interests, and uneven power mean the alliance would benefit China most and public sentiment in India is still anti-Chinese, where Russia favours Beijing.
United States and the West continue to be crucial to India’s economy and diplomacy. India’s democratic, economic, and international aspirations would be jeopardized if it joined an authoritarian group.
India-China Mistrust Outweighs US Tariff Tensions
China & India have unresolved boundary disputes in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. Despite recent diplomatic discussions, military tensions persist. The 2020 Galwan Valley clash inflicted casualties on both sides.
It came after the standoff at Doklam, close to Bhutan, where trust was damaged by these instances. China is still viewed as the enemy in Indian political circles and public opinion. Any alliance would trigger backlash.
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India’s Strategic Tilt Remains Westward
India is not anti-US, it balances ties to maintain strategic autonomy. India counters China through the Quad with the US, Japan, and Australia. It also participates in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which champions a rules-based order. These alignments conflict with China’s regional dominance ambitions and authoritarian model.
Russia’s China Dependency Sidelines India
Since the Ukraine war, Russia has grown economically dependent on China. Beijing buys most of Russia’s sanctioned oil and gas. Moscow supports China’s positions on Taiwan and the South China Sea, India does not.
This tilt raises doubts about Russia’s neutrality in an India-China conflict. The SCO, dominated by Moscow and Beijing, recently ignored India’s concerns on terrorism.
No Economic Or Military Fit
India and China are economic rivals. India has a large trade deficit with China. Russia’s markets are restricted to the energy and defense sectors. From a military perspective, the three do not share the same view of threat, trust, or operational strategy. India is a junior partner in any alliance due to China’s economic and military dominance.
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US Retaliation & Global Costs
A formal RIC alliance would provoke US retaliation. Trump has already targeted BRICS members with tariffs. An anti-US bloc could pull India into the Ukraine or Taiwan conflicts.
It would break India’s non-alignment tradition and damage its standing in the G7, G20, Quad, and IPEF. It could also weaken India’s UN Security Council bid.
Hidden China-First Agenda
RIC is not a partnership of equals. With Russia weakened and dependent, China becomes the senior partner. The alliance would serve Beijing’s geopolitical goals while sidelining India. India risks becoming a prop in China’s bid for a new world order under authoritarian control.
India’s best path is its current one, which is multiple alignments, balanced ties with the West, open channels with Russia, and strong regional partnerships. Strategic autonomy—not a China-first bloc—is the key to securing India’s interests.
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