In a coordinated show of support, Russia and Belarus have reached out to Venezuela’s embattled President Nicolás Maduro as the Trump administration steps up efforts to remove him from power. A backing phone call from President Putin and open offers of refuge from Belarus highlight the geopolitical stakes, suggesting Maduro may consider exile.
What Actions Did Russia and Belarus Take?
The outreach from Moscow and Minsk came within hours of each other on Thursday, presenting a united front.
The key developments were:
Kremlin’s Political Backing: President Vladimir Putin called Maduro, with the Kremlin stating he “reaffirmed his support for the policy of N. Maduro’s government, aimed at protecting national interests and sovereignty in the face of growing external pressure.”
Belarus’s Sanctuary Signal: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held his second meeting in 17 days with Venezuela’s ambassador to Moscow, Jesús Rafael Salazar Velásquez. Lukashenko told the envoy that Maduro was “always welcome in Belarus” and it was “time for him to pay a visit,” according to the state news agency Belta. He hinted at discussing “appropriate decisions” with Maduro directly.
What is the Context of the U.S. Pressure Campaign?
These actions come directly in response to a major escalation by the Trump administration, which has stopped recognizing Maduro as legitimate after a 2024 election widely seen as fraudulent.
Recent U.S. actions include:
Major Military Build-Up: A substantial deployment of U.S. naval and air assets to the Caribbean, creating a visible show of force.
Economic & Maritime Pressure: Intensified sanctions and, recently, the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker to cripple state revenue.
Public Ultimatums: President Trump stated this week that Maduro’s “days are numbered,” though he declined to specify if U.S. troops would be deployed.
Is Maduro Considering Exile?
According to sources who spoke to Reuters, the question of exile is actively being discussed. In a November 21 phone call with Trump, Maduro reportedly stated he was ready to leave Venezuela under the condition that he and his family receive “full legal amnesty” and protection.
The outreach from Belarus, a close Russian ally that has also recently engaged with the Trump administration, appears to be laying the groundwork for a potential safe haven, should Maduro agree to step down.
Your Questions Answered: Venezuela Geopolitical Crisis FAQs
Q: Why is Belarus, a European country, involved?
A: Belarus, led by longtime authoritarian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, is a major strategic partner of Russia and has kept warm relations with Venezuela for years. Lukashenko is also in a careful dialogue with the Trump administration, which is easing sanctions on Belarus, putting him in a possible mediator’s role.
Q: What is Russia’s primary interest in supporting Maduro?
A: With major oil interests and military contracts in Venezuela, Russia has a lot at stake. Supporting Maduro helps secure its regional influence, limits U.S. reach in Latin America, and supports its long-held opposition to U.S.-led regime change efforts.
Q: How has the U.S. responded to the Russia-Belarus moves?
A: There was no immediate public U.S. response to Thursday’s calls. However, the State Department and White House have consistently condemned external support for Maduro. Russia’s foreign ministry has warned the U.S. that its actions “threaten to have unpredictable consequences for the entire Western Hemisphere.”
Q: What is the significance of Lukashenko meeting the ambassador in Moscow?
A: The gesture is highly symbolic. Lukashenko’s decision to meet Venezuela’s representative in Moscow shows he is working closely with Russia and suggests a joint approach by both countries to the crisis.
Q: What are the potential outcomes from here?
A: The situation is volatile. Potential paths include:
- A Negotiated Exit: Maduro consents to a political transition in exchange for amnesty and exile, possibly to Belarus.
- Further Escalation: A direct conflict with Russian-backed forces might result from increased U.S. military posturing or incursions.
- Prolonged Stalemate: Maduro digs in with Russian support, leading to a protracted crisis with continuous low-level conflict and severe humanitarian consequences.
