Incumbent President Daniel Noboa is likely to win an absolute four-year term in Ecuador’s elections on February 9, though a runoff against leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez is still expected, according to multiple polls.
A repeat of the 2023 election could be in store, where Gonzalez led in the first round but ultimately lost to Noboa. Recent polling data suggests a tight race, with Noboa leading but struggling to secure an outright first-round victory.
A Jan. 25 survey by Comunicaliza, a pollster, showed Noboa capturing 47.1% of valid votes, excluding those blank or void, with Gonzalez trailing at 39.5%. According to the rules of the election in Ecuador, however, a candidate needs to win more than 50% of valid votes or obtain at least 40% while leaving his challenger at least 10 points behind to win the election in the first round.
An Ipsos poll, conducted between Jan. 20-24, projected Noboa securing a decisive first-round win with 50% of valid votes against Gonzalez’s 34.6%. The survey, which polled 2,000 people, had a 2.2% margin of error.
Noboa, 37, showed optimism and said he is the favorite, with his campaign distributing polls on social media and adding, “We are at the gates of a permanent removal of the mafias that have stolen our dreams and stopped Ecuador’s development.”
However, Negocios & Estrategias ran another poll, putting Gonzalez in the lead with 45% of the valid vote over Noboa, who received 40%, setting up a probable runoff.
Analysts have warned against putting too much faith in Ecuadorian polls, which have been proven to be untrustworthy over the past few years. According to Tellimer Insights, markets may be overestimating Noboa’s chances, but a runoff remains the most likely outcome.