Since the visit of President Bill Clinton in March 2000, India -US Relations have expanded and deepened and have become strategically more aligned irrespective of the Change of and New Delhi and different political parties leading the Govt. Both countries have overcome the hesitation of history and have developed a degree of trust which was missing in the past. While the US has designated India as a major defence partner (2016) and elevated her to Strategic Trade Authorization tier 1 status (2018) envisaging licence free access to a wide range of military and dual use technologies, India has signed all the basic communication agreements: LEMOA (Logistics Exchange of Memorandum of agreement); COMCASA (Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement); BECA (Basic Exchange & Cooperation Agreement) for Geo Spatial cooperation
India has emerged as one of the biggest defence importers of USA, in the last ten years, India has imported defence requirements from USA worth US$ 25 billion. American defence sales to India have included aircrafts like C-130-J Super Hercules, C-17 Globemaster III ; P -81 Poseidon’, MQ 9 B Sea Guardian and sky Guardian; helicopters such as CH-47F Chinooks , MH-60 R Sea Hawks, AH-64 E Apache and Harpoons anti-ship missiles and MK 777 Howitzers. Besides 300 joint military exercises, India -US are now cooperating in UN Peace Keeping and antipiracy efforts.
Though in his first term, Donald Trump had called India a Tariff King and loudly protested against custom duty on Harley Davidson bikes & withdrawn GSP facility and forced India to stop buying Iranian oil and start buying US oil and gas, complained about unfavourable balance of trade, bilateral trade between the two countries has only gone up; the US has regained its status as the largest trading partner of India; bilateral trade in 2024 crossed the figure of US$ 118.2 billion with trade surplus in India’s favour to the tune of US$ 36.8 billion; India’s oil and gas import from the US have reached US$ 14 billion.
It was during Trump’s first term that the level of the meetings of the QUAD was raised to the foreign Minister. On 31st May 2018, the US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis announced that” in recognition of the increasing connectivity of the Indian & Pacific oceans” the US Pacific Command was renamed as Indo Pacific Command. And Trump Admn underlined India’s importance both for QUAD as well as Indo Pacific Region.
Thus, during Turmp-o1, the US did pursue close bilateral as well as strategic relations with India; in Feb 2020, the relationship was elevated to the level of”: Comprehensive Global Strategic partnership. When China committed aggression against Indian in Galwan Valley in June 2020 Trump Admn was sharply critical of China’s aggression.
While we have some differences, the top leadership in the US & India haven’t allowed those differences to degenerate in to disputes. Showing enough maturity, they have tried to understand and each other’s raison d’etre and strive to arrive at workable common positions. This augurs well for both the countries.
In the light of the above, we shouldn’t ignore Trump’s numerous blunt and undiplomatic warnings. He relishes his image of a disrupter and an unbridled bully. But we shouldn’t take his words on their face value. He simplistically asserts that the whole world has been taking the US for a ride and makes exorbitant demands to make amends. But behind his rattling rhetoric, he is ready for a fair deal which he can boast to his diehard supporters as a major victory. Evidently, he is capable of unpredictable and out of box initiatives.
Compared to his intimidating and disparaging statements about the Canadian, Mexican, Panamian & Danish counterparts, his reference about India has, rather, been sober and moderate. The White House read out about his conversation with PM Modi says,” Two leaders discussed expanding and deepening cooperation. They also discussed a range of regional issues, including security in the Indo-pacific, the middle East and Europe. The President emphasised the importance of India increasing its procurement of American made security equipment and moving towards a fair bilateral trading relationship.” As for taking back illegal immigrants Trump reportedly said,” India will do the right thing.”
In his own way, Trump has laid out a road map for taking the relationship forwards; the measures he wants us to take are doable. We should assure him that we are all for his MAGA goal but also seek a helping hand to PM Modi’s endeavours to make India a developed nation by 2047.The is no inherent Conflict of interest; we can constructively complement each other.
There is considerable scope for reducing import duties on a range of items exported by the US; we should do so in our own interest; it will also bridge the trade imbalance. But we must also demand access to the US Market for more Indian products. We should press for an FTA which Trump talked about in his first term but couldn’t materialise. The restoration of the GSP looks unlikely; when we talk about becoming the third largest economy of the world in the next 2-3 years, we shouldn’t press for it.
Our Army, Airforce and the Navy have a long inventory list for their requirements which should make Trump happy. But we must press for joint research and joint production; production of GE Jet Engine F414 in collaboration with HAL with transfer of 80% technology shows the way. The agreement for the establishment of a cutting-edge facility for the fabrication of semiconductors called Shakti in Jewar in UP is another pathbreaking game changer. Modi should insist that agreement on iCET (emerging and critical technologies) reached during his predecessor which cover vast areas of technological cooperation should be continued. Similarly IMEEC( ,India -Middle East -Europe Economic Corridor) is an initiative with huge prospects.
There are roughly 7.5 lakhs illegal Indians in USA. According to some estimate, around 17,500 might be sent back. The conditions in which the first flight brought them created a huge uproar in India. We have evacuated Indians from war zones like Libya and Ukraine. We should seek American authorities’ agreement to send the illegal Indians back on Indian planes sent by the Indian govt.
As for H1B visa, Trump, Musk and several Tech companies don’t want it to be too restrictive as it will affect their productivity negatively. Let them adopt a sensible approach.
Vikram Misri, Foreign Secretary’s comments to the media sum up the agenda of Modi-Trump talks,” There is a clear convergence of interests between the two countries in several areas, including trade, investment, technology, defence cooperation, counterterrorism, Indo-Pacific security, and people-to-people relations.”
“The 5.4 million-strong Indian community in the US and the more than 350,000 Indian students pursuing higher education in American universities further strengthen this bond.”
But shouldn’t we be wary of a possible thaw between USA & China?
* Surendra Kumar is a former Indian ambassador.
