Isolationism is not a recent phenomenon in Pakistani politics. The once-powerful leaders who enjoyed popular support have often been isolated in their later periods. In 2008, Pervez Musharraf’s closest ally in Sindh, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) under an understanding with their coalition partners from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) stayed away from the voting to call upon Musharraf to face impeachment which left no opposition voices in the assembly defending the leader.
The same MQM exactly a year back to rally its support to Musharraf blocked roads and gunned down over 40 people to prevent the visit of the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry to Karachi. However, a year is enough to change equations in Pakistani politics and Musharraf eventually being isolated from its allies had to resign ahead of the impeachment
proceedings.
In the recent history of Pakistani politics, Imran Khan has faced the same fate of isolationism as Pervez Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif did. There are multiple senior leaders of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party quitting, after his arrest on May 9 from the premises of the Islamabad High Court by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) with the help of the paramilitary Rangers in the Al-Qadir Trust case. The arrest comes after he had doubled down his allegations against the most powerful institution, the Pakistani army whom he blamed for his ouster and a senior officer from the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for a plot to assassinate him. Khan’s supporters have always acted as a buffer to prevent the military from taking action but the attacks by his supporters on the military buildings after the arrest damaged the invincible image of the army. The army responded quickly by saying that the violent protestors from the ‘black day’ would be tried in military courts. The army is rather using a leaf out of its playbook to sideline Imran Khan and maintain a stronghold in politics as it had done to other leaders in the past who had fallen out of its favour. The PTI is being dismantled like Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) during the 2018 General Elections but the Sharif government did not have a sort of a fallout with the army that Imran Khan has at the moment.
Senior Leaders Quitting PTI
The senior leaders of the PTI inner circle have been rearrested multiple times even after being granted bails and they exited the party following the pressure mounted on them by the establishment. Shireen Mazari, the former Human Rights minister who has been arrested five times in two weeks was the first to leave the party and quit politics. The former finance minister Asad Umar, the information minister Fawad Chaudhry, and defence minister Pervez Khattak have followed suit by stepping down from the party’s leadership position. The sole senior leader remaining in the party is the former Foreign Affairs Minister and vice chairman of PTI, Shah Mehmood Qureshi who was granted bail by the Rawalpindi High Court on June 6.
Jahangir Tareen, once a close aide of Imran Khan has quit the party and decided to start a new political party with the PTI defectors, the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party. During the press conference, Tareen criticised the May 9 incident and mentioned that Pakistan is going through a ‘delicate time’ and they attempt to ‘collectively steer Pakistan out of the quagmire’. Dr Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS) in an interview with these authors mentioned ‘there are efforts to create a parallel political party with the help of the establishment to consolidate the support system which is associated with the PTI leaders quitting, and putting them into a new party.’ Politics in Pakistan isn’t quite determined by political ideologies or affiliations but rather by a sense of opportunism and that allows the former PTI leaders to join the IPP in better prospects for power.
The PTI members are seen making an appearance to announce their resignations from the party, condemning the May 9 incident and declaring their backing for the Pakistani army. Dr Chawla added ‘these are efforts to sideline Imran and revive the tarnished image of the military. PTI hardly has any other leader apart from Imran Khan who can continue the momentum of the party. Even though there were many senior leaders in the party, it has been all about Imran Khan.’ The PTI even though have a massive support base among the masses, Imran Khan would still need strong candidates and leadership in the party to win the upcoming elections. However, there are strong considerations for banning the PTI party and even blocking the live telecasting of Khan’s speeches.
The Current Situation in Pakistan
The political turmoil in Pakistan is only deepening the economic crisis as growth has stalled and inflation reached a record 36.4% last month. With the foreign reserves shrinking rapidly and the Pakistani rupee depreciating, the country is struggling to import even basic commodities like food. The last International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout plan is set to expire this month and it is unlikely that it would be able to secure the next funding provided that the IMF isn’t satisfied with the Pakistani budget. Esther Perez Ruiz, the IMF’s resident representative in Pakistan mentioned in a statement that the budget is a ‘missed opportunity to broaden the tax base in a progressive way’ and the ‘new list of tax expenditures reduces the fairness of the tax system’. The Pakistani government could face default if the IMF funding isn’t secure and it would only increase the economic misery. Last year, according to data compiled by the Pakistani regulatory and monitoring body the Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment, more than 800,000 Pakistanis left the country due to high inflation and finding better economic prospects abroad. The number of Pakistanis travelling through dangerous sea routes to Europe is overwhelming as the European governments are tightening the borders and stance towards migrants. Around 300 Pakistanis lost their lives in the sinking of an overcrowded boat off the coast of Greece last week, making it one of the deadliest tragedies in recent times. This was the third incident recorded this year in which migrants and refugees from Pakistan lost their lives at sea while fleeing the poverty-torn country. There can not be any radical economic reforms and nothing will change in Pakistan unless the Pakistani army stops interfering in the work of the civilian government and let them complete their full terms without the fear of falling out of favour.
Ratnadeep Chakraborty is the co-founder of an independent media company that covers the spheres of strategic affairs called The Honest Critique.
Ekampreet Kaur has pursued her Bachelor of Arts in Social Sciences from Guru Nanak Dev University. She has worked as a Junior Project Officer for the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and hosted shows on strategic affairs for The Honest Critique in the past.
