On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting, US President Donald Trump gave a major boost to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) by saying his administration strongly supports it and that it must be developed to ensure that Iran does not get to choke oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Great idea, but easier said than done. IMEC is supposed to be a combination of maritime shipping and overland rail infrastructure, where goods go from India to the UAE and then overland to Israel’s Haifa port on the Mediterranean and from there to Europe by sea.
But such a support does not factor in the geopolitical reality of “normalizing” Israel by the Arabs. To reach Haifa from UAE the corridor will have to cut through the Arabian Peninsula and transit via Jordan into Haifa—fine on paper, but given the complex situation on the ground, the mainstreaming of Israel in the Arab world—in the aftermath of 7 October 2023 and subsequent developments including the ongoing war—is next to impossible. While Abraham Accords part 2 will ensure this normalisation to a large extent, Saudi Arabia, without whom there is no Abraham Accords, is in a quandary, with the Iranbacked Houthis snapping at its heels. If Saudi Arabia is seen to be tilting towards Israel in any manner, Iran will unleash its proxy to overrun Riyadh, which is anyway in a bind given that even its Mecca Defence Agreement partners are not willing to help it out in any manner. Lest we forget, one of the reasons why the October 7 2023 attack on Israel was carried out was to stop Saudi Arabia from signing the Abraham Accords 2.
And if Iran accepted Israel’s right to exist, the whole of West Asia problem would have ceased to exist. Hence, the way things stand at present, it would be easier for Mr Trump to negotiate with Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz than try to cut the Gordian Knot of West Asian history. But for that he will have to stop threatening Iran with annihilation—as he did as part of his official speech from the UNGA platform. Coercive diplomacy is no diplomacy at all—it is known as bullying. The more he ups the rhetoric, the more he reduces for Iran the space to manoeuvre. The Iranian military is already talking of giving a “crushing” reply to Mr Trump’s threats. If it’s true that the US side had a “very good meeting” with the Iranians, as Mr Trump also claimed, that constructive dialogue is where matters should remain.
