In a major shift ahead of the Bihar Assembly Election 2025, the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have decided to contest 101 seats each. This marks the first time both parties will fight on equal footing — a reflection of how their political fortunes have changed over the past decade.
The equal seat-sharing deal comes as Nitish Kumar’s JDU continues to lose electoral ground, while the BJP’s strike rate has consistently improved.
Equal Partners After Unequal Journeys
Of Bihar’s 243 assembly seats, both JDU and BJP will contest 101 each, leaving the remaining to allies — including Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), which has been allocated 29 seats.
For Nitish Kumar, this represents a steep drop from the 115 seats the JDU contested in 2020. The BJP has also reduced its share from 110 to 101, but its performance trend has been upward.
BJP’s Rise and JDU’s Decline
The numbers reveal a clear trend reversal between the two allies. In 2020, the BJP won 74 out of 110 seats, a 68% strike rate. Meanwhile, the JDU managed to win only 43 out of 115, translating to a strike rate below 38% — almost half of what it achieved in 2015.
Back in 2015, when Nitish allied with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the Congress, the JDU had an impressive 70% strike rate, winning 71 out of 101 seats. But when he returned to the NDA fold, the party’s performance nosedived.
The JDU’s vote share also fell from 41% in 2015 to below 33% in 2020, as per a Moneycontrol analysis.
A Shift in Power Dynamics
In 2010, Nitish Kumar’s JDU was the senior partner in the NDA, winning 115 of 141 seats — an 82% strike rate. The BJP was close behind with 91 wins out of 102, or 89%.
But by 2020, the tables had turned. The BJP’s performance was far stronger, making it the dominant partner despite offering Nitish the Chief Minister’s post.
Analysts say the BJP agreed to keep Nitish as CM due to his long tenure and political flexibility, but the balance of power within the alliance has clearly shifted.
What Lies Ahead for Nitish Kumar?
While Nitish Kumar continues to lead Bihar, discussions within the NDA suggest that he may eventually make way for a BJP leader — possibly someone younger — if the alliance wins again.
Even so, in Bihar politics, numbers are not always the deciding factor. In 2020, despite a poor strike rate, Nitish retained the top post thanks to the BJP’s backing. Whether history repeats itself in 2025 will depend on how the two allies perform this time around.
