China is maintaining a long-term strategy to contain India and dominate south East Asia by denying territorial boundaries and aggression since 1949, the era of Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China. Annexation of Tibet by China, illegal invasion of China in Aksai Chin in 1959, followed by the Sino-India War in 1962 and denial of McMahon line as India-China border, as well as claiming Arunachal Pradesh, are deliberate attempt of China to keep LAC volatile till date.
Xi Jinping, the present premier of China, is more aggressive and focused on his policy towards Asia and Africa by his tactics of influencing governance of developing countries through heavy investment, extending huge debt and multiple infrastructure projects labeled as Belt and Road initiative projects.
As per assessment, China has already made investment of more than USD 210 billion out of an estimated cost of USD 1 trillion. Most of the investment is being pumped into poor Asian and African countries. In turn, China has been successfully getting access to develop its strategic and military bases in these countries. China has already established its significance strategic, military and financial presence in Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal as well. Hence, China has effectively got access to develop a purse string of influenced countries around India.
Nepal shares a 1,414 km border with Tibet whereas India shares a 1,770 km long border with Nepal. The IndoNepal border demarcates the Himalayan territories as well as Indo-Gangetic Plain. India and Nepal have been maintaining a very strong and most cordial cultural, trade and military bonding since several centuries which continued till the recent past. China had played a very dubious, coward and deliberated tactics to promote Maoists’ communist party in Nepal to drive massive and violent movement to destabilize the 240-year-old Hindu Monarchy in Nepal in 2001.
The subsequent emergence of Communist party in governance in Nepal has given ample opportunity to China to ensure his influence in the Nepal and to drift Nepal out of close knit of most favoured nation for India. Chinese influence over Nepal has reached all-time peaks in the recent past during Communist Party-led government under Prime Ministership of K.P. Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’.
Sino-Nepal ties had got quantum jump post the earthquake period in 2015 as a reactive response to the multiple trade restrictions and road blockade imposed on the Indo-Nepal border by the agitating Madhesi Nepalese against constitutional amendments in Nepal to reduce them as second citizens within the country. These restrictions had generated massive a crisis and acute shortage of fuel and essential commodities within Nepal. China had grabbed this opportunity with quick response to promote antiIndia sentiments by extending massive financial aid and support to Nepal as relief measure towards earthquake victims and redevelopment and rehabilitation projects in the post earthquake period.
This had opened up a new era of Sino-Nepal relations and beginning of downgrading of Indo Nepal diplomatic, cultural and trade relations. Later, in 2016, Nepal and China inked the Trade and Transit Agreement (TTA).
According to this agreement, Nepal has got access to seven Chinese sea and land ports even for third country import and export through Chinese facilities. Almost after 3 years of closure of the route and soon after regaining power by the Communist Party led by Prachanda and supported by K.P. Oli, China restored two-way trade with Nepal on 28 December 2022 via Rasuwagadhi in Nepal to Kerung-Jilong border port in Tibet.
China has also opened up one way trade via Hilsa/ Purang port with Nepal. As on today, China is second largest trading partner of Nepal preceded by India. Sino-Nepal trade amounts to 2 billion US dollars in 2021 compared to Indo-Nepal trade of 10 billion US dollars.
However, China is far ahead in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) share of around 60% of total FDI in Nepal compared to Indian share of 30% only. China is trying to twist and Indo-Nepal cultural ties by pumping a massive amount of USD 3 billion to redevelop and transform Lumbini, the birthplace of Buddha as an international pilgrimage.
China is also pushing its agenda to infuse his ideology into Nepali youth by cultural, education and electronic media transformation. China has successfully been able to get a big impetus to enter into policymaking and industrial institutions in Nepal to redefine its doctrine to look towards north so as to minimize dependency on Indian institutions and access to global trade and diplomacy without having any undue influence of India.
Nepal has inked a MoU with China in May 2014 to initiate on the framework agreement on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Under BRI projects, China got access to develop multiple infrastructure including railways, road, airport, hydropower and industries in the Nepal by Chinese companies. China is keeping eyes to develop infrastructure adjacent to the Indo-Nepal border as well as to link them with Tibet, Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh with a larger scenario to put pressure on North Eastern part of India especially on Arunachal Pradesh if any military action is being contemplated in future.
Under BRI, multiple rail and road projects are under process. China is building the Kyirong-Kathmandu rail road worth USD 2.15 billion with a time frame of 9 years with further extension to join Lhasa to Chengdu Train link. This project is likely to be extended up to Indian border with significant impact on rapid mobility of Chinese forces up to Indian border. On the same way china is planning to develop express highways adjoining to Indo Nepal border in Nepal and to join them with Tibet.
China is developing multiple civil air ports with dual civil and military purpose in Nepal especially in adjoining areas to the India. The recently inaugurated airport at Pokhara is a matter of deep concern for Indian security establishments. On the same IT network, satellite bases and other important projects of security concern has been conceptualized by china across the Indo Nepal, Indo China and China Bhutan borders.
The growing financial and diplomatic influence of China in not only in Nepal, but in Bangladesh and Myanmar too and will have far-reaching impact on the security concerns of India as well as on the peace and stability in South East Asia and in Indian subcontinent. Possibilities and fear of Nepal may be trapped by China into debt whirlpool as happened in Sri Lanka and Pakistan cannot be ruled out. China has a long term and big plan on encircling India from every corner.
Hence, financially and politically stable, strong democratic and highly compatible neighbour countries are most important to safeguard Indian interests.
Hence, India has to redefine and design long-term strategies to develop congenial, financially sustainable and reliable diplomatic ties clubbed with mutual respect and understanding to grow together among all the countries in this region.
Major General J.K.S. Parihar, Sena Medal, Bar to Vishisht Seva Medal (Retd.) and former Additional Director General, AFMS and an expert on defence and international strategic affairs
