National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval’s trip to Russia this week is a time of increased geopolitical tensions and renewed international scrutiny of India’s strategic decisions. Doval’s visit an advance-scheduled one but now greatly symbolic takes place against the background of the US strongly raising tariffs against Indian merchandise for ongoing Russian oil imports and India’s abstention on the Ukraine war. With Washington threatening further sanctions, Doval’s Moscow trip is of significant import for India’s foreign, energy, and security policy.
Focus of the Visit
Doval is having top-level discussions with his Russian counterparts on four core issues:
- Defence Cooperation: India and Russia will likely address defence industry cooperation, such as the purchase and supply of cutting-edge S-400 missile systems, maintenance facilities in India, and the possibility of Su-57 fighter jet purchases. These matters have taken on increased importance as the war in Ukraine and sanctions have been slowing down various Russian defence shipments.
- Energy and Oil Trade: With the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports—and threatening increases—due to New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, Doval’s agenda includes reinforcing India’s position on energy security. Indian officials have emphasised the priority of affordable energy access for Indian consumers, defending the ongoing oil trade as a matter of national interest.
- Regional Stability and Counterterrorism: Doval’s behind-closed-doors discussions are likely to discuss regional security, counterterrorism, and the changing landscape in Afghanistan, including Russia’s possible recognition of the Taliban government.
- Strategic Autonomy and Summit Prep: The discussions also pave the way for the pending summit between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin. India wishes to emphasize its strategic autonomy, highlighting a multi-aligned foreign policy in today’s global dispensation.
Broader Implications
Doval’s trip to Moscow reiterated India’s enduring and strong alliance with Russia, which is widely characterised as a “special and privileged strategic partnership.” The action reflects India’s determination to sustain multi-polar relations in the face of mounting US pressure on both oil and defence fronts.
Some of the key implications are:
- Defending Strategic Interests: India sends a clear signal that it will not dump important strategic partners under coercion, particularly in crucial areas such as defence and energy.
- Global Balance: While the US is at a juncture where it is threatening to impose new sanctions on India for conducting business with Russia, Doval’s visit acts as an affirmation of India’s free foreign policy, demonstrating to the world that bilateral relations are dictated by national interest and not enforced by coercion from elsewhere.
- Regional Stability: Enforcing defence and security coordination with Russia also assists India to check China’s increasing influence and respond to regional threats, including terrorism and instability in Afghanistan.
- Continued Dialogue: The meetings lay the ground for sustained high-level interaction, with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to travel to Moscow later in the month for further discussions on defence, energy, and economic cooperation.
The Nutshell
NSA Doval’s Moscow visit highlights India’s resolve to maintain a strong relationship with Russia, safeguard its security and energy interests, and exercise strategic autonomy in the face of rapid global change characterized by US protectionism and increasing geopolitical rivalries.
