India’s population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 percent, according to the United Nations’ World Population Prospects 2024 report. Despite this decline, India is expected to remain the world’s most populous country throughout the century. The report highlights that the global population, currently at 8.2 billion, is expected to grow to around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
India’s population, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year, is currently estimated at 1.45 billion. It is projected to peak at 1.69 billion in the early 2060s before declining to approximately 1.5 billion by 2100. This sustained large population will keep India in the top position, well ahead of other countries. The report underscores the significant social, economic, and environmental implications of India’s demographic trajectory, necessitating strategic planning and policy adjustments.
In contrast, China’s population is projected to decline significantly. From a current population of 1.41 billion, it is expected to fall to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100. This decline is largely due to China’s sustained low fertility rates, which are currently around one birth per woman on average over a lifetime, far below the replacement level of 2.1 births. China is anticipated to experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, with a projected decline of 204 million people. This significant reduction in population size will profoundly impact China’s economy, labor force, and social support systems.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of global population trends. India’s rise to and maintenance of its status as the most populous nation, coupled with China’s significant demographic shifts, will shape the geopolitical and economic landscapes of the future. Effective policy responses and strategic planning will be crucial for both countries to navigate these demographic changes and their associated challenges.
