Germany’s centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are projected to win the 2025 federal election, securing 30% of the vote and 220 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, according to YouGov’s final MRP forecast. This marks a notable increase from the 24% vote share the party achieved in the last election.
AfD’s Unprecedented Growth
The most striking development in the forecast is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing 20% of the vote and 145 seats. This result would double AfD’s previous 10% vote share, making it the most successful party to the right of the CDU/CSU in post-war Germany. The party’s surge highlights shifting voter sentiments, particularly in the eastern regions.
Historic Losses for SPD
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are projected to suffer a major setback, with an estimated 16% of the vote and 115 seats. This would be a dramatic decline from their 26% share in 2021, marking the worst electoral performance for the SPD in Germany’s post-war history.
Greens Face Decline Amid Coalition Uncertainty
The Greens, currently part of the governing coalition, are predicted to garner 13% of the vote, translating to 94 seats. This represents a decline from their record-breaking 15% in the previous election. The results indicate a challenging road ahead for the party as coalition negotiations loom.
Regional Divide: East vs. West
A sharp political divide between East and West Germany is evident in the forecast. The AfD is expected to dominate in former East German constituencies, particularly in Saxony and Thuringia, where the party is projected to receive 37% and 36% of the vote, respectively. Meanwhile, the party is unlikely to secure any seats in the former West Germany. Smaller parties, including The Left and the newly formed BSW, are also expected to perform better in the East.
Potential Coalition Scenarios
Despite the SPD’s significant losses, a grand coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD remains a possibility, as it is one of the few two-party coalitions capable of securing a majority. However, YouGov’s forecast suggests that a CDU/CSU-Greens coalition would fall just short of the 316-seat majority, winning 314 seats. Meanwhile, a CDU/CSU-AfD coalition has been firmly ruled out by the Christian Democrats.
Political Landscape Shift and Future Challenges
The projected results highlight a significant shift in Germany’s political dynamics, with the rise of the far-right presenting new hurdles for government formation. As Europe’s largest economy heads toward a crucial election, coalition negotiations and voter sentiment will play a decisive role in shaping Germany’s future leadership.
