In the elections for the Shahpura Assembly seat, caste equations have always played a significant role. This seat has a majority of Jats and Yadavs. Both these castes have a significant share in the thirty-four per cent. Both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have fielded Yadav candidates. In other words, the distribution of Yadav votes is predetermined. In this case, the key will remain with Jat and Brahmin voters. To gather these votes, independent candidate Alok Beniwal is in the field. Alok is the sitting MLA from this seat. He contested as an independent in the last elections and emerged victorious by defeating the candidates of both major parties.
Supporters of independent MLA Alok Beniwal are working day and night for him. Supporters say that they want Alok to win the election again, and if the result does not go according to their wishes, at least the Congress candidate should not win. Alok Beniwal does not rely on any recommendations. He is the son of Congress-loyal leader Kamala Beniwal. Alok defeated Congress candidate Manish Yadav by 3,855 votes last time. Congress has again fielded Manish Yadav this time. BJP has not given a ticket to Rao Rajendra Singh, who was in the third position last time and put its bet on Upen Yadav, the president of the Rajasthan Unemployed Integrated Mahasangh and a youth leader.
Earlier, Shahpura was a stronghold of BJP
The Shahpura area used to come under the Bairath Assembly seat earlier. After delimitation, Bairath was divided into two assembly seats in 2008. One was named Viratnagar, and the other was named Shahpura. The newly formed Shahpura Assembly seat had its first election in 2008, in which BJP’s Rao Rajendra Singh defeated Congress’ Alok Beniwal by 7,215 votes, becoming the first MLA of the constituency. Five years later, in the 2013 elections, Rao Rajendra Singh again defeated Congress’ Alok Beniwal by 2,397 votes, establishing this seat as a stronghold of BJP.
Alok shattered the BJP’s illusion
In the 2018 Assembly elections, when Alok Beniwal did not get the Congress ticket, he entered the field as an independent. Alok succeeded in breaking the charisma of the BJP by pushing BJP candidate Rao Rajendra Singh to the third position and defeating him. Alok defeated Manish Yadav by 3,855 votes. Surprisingly, NOTA remained in the fourth position in the election. NOTA received 1,432 votes. Interestingly, Rao Rajendra Singh had defeated Kamala Beniwal in the 2003 elections for the Bairath Assembly seat. Alok, Kamala’s son, avenged his mother’s defeat in the 2018 elections for the Shahpura Assembly seat after 15 years.
BJP was not able to predetermine the defeat
BJP candidate Rao Rajendra Singh won the election in 2008 with 7,215 votes. After that, the margin of Rao Rajendra Singh’s victory was only 2,397 votes in the 2013 elections. BJP could not understand the declining popularity of Rao Rajendra Singh, and in 2018, Rao was given the ticket again. The result was that Rao struggled and reached the third position. In view of the dissatisfaction with Rao in the constituency, the party has fielded a new face, Upen Yadav, in the 2023 elections. Now, it remains to be seen how much benefit BJP gets from putting Upen in the game.
Manish Yadav was in ABVP initially
Congress candidate Manish Yadav was associated with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP), the student organisation of the BJP, during his student life. He contested the university student union elections in 2010-11 as a candidate of the ABVP and successfully became the president. In 2013, he joined the BJP. When the party did not give him a ticket in the 2013 Assembly elections, he contested independently from the Shahpura seat. He lost the election. Congress gave Manish Yadav a ticket from the Shahpura seat again in 2018. Manish lost this election by a margin of only 3,855 votes. Despite the loss, Congress expressed confidence in Manish again and fielded him with the election symbol of the hand in the 2023 electoral battle.
Caste equations dominate the Shahpura assembly seat
The Shahpura Assembly seat is heavily influenced by caste equations. The seat has a mix of Yadavs, Jats, and Brahmins. The alliance between Yadavs and Jats has never been successful on this seat. In the 2023 elections, the play of caste equations will once again be crucial. The outcome of this ‘play’ will be known on December 3, but efforts to polarise votes based on caste are at their peak these days. Independent candidate Alok Beniwal is seeking votes based on his work.
Behind the scenes, he is also working to win Jat’s votes. Manish Yadav’s main support base is the popularity of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. However, he is also working to gather Yadav votes. The Congress has not yet opened its account on this seat. BJP’s Upen Yadav is also trying to make inroads into Yadav votes. Upen has a considerable number of supporters among unemployed youth as he has been raising the voices of unemployed youth for nearly 11 years.
