Vidhyadhar Nagar constituency, known as the stronghold of Rajputs, is considered the safest for the BJP. Perhaps this is the reason that since this seat came into existence, Rajput candidates have been winning from here. In the last two elections, both major political parties, Congress and BJP, fielded Rajput candidates. In the 2018 elections, Congress tried its luck by fielding a candidate associated with the Vaishya community, Sitaram Agarwal. However, this attempt was unsuccessful. In all three elections, BJP’s Narpat Singh Rajvi emerged victorious. This time, the BJP has fielded Diya Kumari, who has connections with the Jaipur royal family.
Congress has given a ticket once again to the former candidate, Sitararam Agarwal. In the 2018 assembly elections, the main reason for Sitararam Agarwal’s defeat was the rebellious candidate Vikram Singh Shekhawat from the party. If Congress rebel Vikram Singh’s votes had gone to Sitararam, the election result would have been completely different. However, this time, Vikram Singh is supporting Sitararam Agarwal. Therefore, it is being speculated that Diya Kumari will not easily win against Congress MP Diya Kumari.
Caste dynamics are crucial:
After delimitation in 2008, this seat, which came into existence, has the highest population of Rajputs. Brahmins are in second place, and Vaishyas are in third place. This caste composition is decisive for victory or defeat on this seat. BJP fielded Narpat Singh Rajvi from Vidhyadhar Nagar seat in 2008 due to his relation with the late Rajput leader Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. Congress, considering the importance of the Rajput community, made Vikram Singh Shekhawat contest the elections. Vikram Singh lost the election by a margin of 9,040 votes. At that time, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat had also campaigned for his son-in-law, Narpat Singh. In 2013, there was a contest between Narpat Singh and Vikram Singh again, and Narpat Singh Rajvi emerged victorious with a margin of 37,913 votes. Contesting on the BJP ticket, Narpat Singh received 95,599 votes, while Sitararam Agarwal, the Congress candidate, received 64,367 votes. Congress rebel Vikram Singh Shekhawat was successful in getting 50,382 votes. In other words, due to Vikram Singh, Congress’s calculations went wrong, and the party had to face defeat.
Diya Kumari at the forefront:
BJP candidate Diya Kumari is receiving support from Rajputs. Moreover, due to being a woman, there is a special attraction towards her from women voters. Also, due to her connection with the royal family, there is a special attraction towards Diya among Rajputs. There was a wave of dissatisfaction against Narpat Singh Rajvi in the constituency. If BJP had fielded Rajvi from this seat for the fourth time, there was a high probability of defeat. The party, after internal surveys, decided that giving the ticket to MP Diya Kumari would be a better option. Looking at the voter turnout, as the percentage of voting increased in the Vidhyadhar Nagar seat, the BJP’s vote percentage also increased. The party is making efforts to increase the voting percentage to three-quarters or more this time. This increases the likelihood of Diya Kumari’s victory.
Congress giving a tough fight:
In the 2023 elections, Congress candidate Sitararam Agarwal seems to be giving a tough fight because, in the last elections, Vikram Singh Shekhawat, who came third, is now campaigning for Sitararam Agarwal. Congress has no rebel in the field. The most significant thing is that Sitararam Agarwal has been active in the area for five years. He is benefiting from this.